Table 3 Incidence rates (IRs, unadjusted) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs, unadjusted and adjusted) for women (N = 12,609) by male ART coverage, ART scale-up period, and year.

From: Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort

 EventsPerson-yearsInc rate (95% CI)Unadj. IRR (95% CI)P-valueAdj. IRR (95% CI)dP-value
Model 1: By male ART coveragea
 0–9%64214,6534.38 (4.00–4.79)Ref.Ref.
 10–24%67414,5494.63 (4.24–5.07)1.06 (0.92–1.21)0.4220.99 (0.89–1.11)0.891
 25–34%84717,5704.82 (4.47–5.21)1.10 (0.98–1.24)0.1140.87 (0.77–0.97)0.016
 35–55%41611,0143.78 (3.38–4.23)0.86 (0.75–1.00)0.0430.68 (0.59–0.78)<0.01
Model 2: By ART scale-up periodb
 2005–20101,31629,2034.51 (4.25–4.78)Ref.Ref.
 2011–20151,03021,7964.73 (4.42–5.05)1.05 (0.96–1.15)0.3170.85 (0.77–0.93)<0.01
 2016–201723467893.45 (2.95–4.02)0.76 (0.65–0.90)<0.010.63 (0.55–0.74)<0.01
Model 3: By yearc
 200518645674.08 (3.40–4.90)0.84 (0.65–1.08)0.1661.11 (0.90–1.37)0.339
 200622350084.45 (3.77–5.27)0.91 (0.71–1.17)0.4651.16 (0.95–1.42)0.157
 200723150784.56 (3.86–5.39)0.93 (0.73–1.19)0.5851.18 (0.97–1.44)0.097
 200823150504.58 (3.89–5.40)0.94 (0.74–1.19)0.6041.13 (0.92–1.38)0.234
 200922048184.58 (3.85–5.44)0.94 (0.73–1.20)0.6041.14 (0.94–1.39)0.176
 201022146814.72 (3.98–5.61)0.97 (0.75–1.25)0.7951.15 (0.94–1.40)0.169
 201120945664.59 (3.85–5.47)0.94 (0.73–1.21)0.6240.97 (0.79–1.20)0.803
 201221443194.95 (4.14–5.92)1.01 (0.78–1.31)0.9201.02 (0.83–1.25)0.846
 201321143544.85 (4.05–5.81)0.99 (0.76–1.30)0.9611.00 (0.82–1.21)0.968
 201421143294.89 (4.09–5.84)Ref.Ref.
 201518242254.31 (3.58–5.20)0.88 (0.67–1.16)0.3680.86 (0.71–1.06)0.164
 201614137833.74 (3.04–4.61)0.77 (0.58–1.02)0.0640.78 (0.63–0.97)0.026
 20179230053.06 (2.38–3.94)0.63 (0.46–0.86)<0.010.65 (0.51–0.83)<0.01
  1. HIV events, person-years, unadjusted IRs, and unadjusted adjusted IRRs are averages over 300 datasets generated by imputing a single random infection date within the censoring interval. Rubin’s rules were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals
  2. aOpposite-sex ART coverage used because of the generalized, heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa, with 0–9% as the reference category
  3. bTime intervals were defined by changes in national criteria for ART eligibility, with 2005–2010 as the reference period
  4. cTime intervals were defined by year, with 2012 as the reference year
  5. dEstimates adjusted for age, self-reported condom use, circumcision and marital status, household assets index, cumulative time spent outside surveillance area, and opposite-sex HIV prevalence in the surrounding community (see Supplementary Table 5 for full results)