Table 2 Incidence rates (IRs, unadjusted) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs, unadjusted and adjusted) for men (N = 9630) by female ART coverage, ART scale-up period, and year.

From: Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort

 EventsPerson-yearsInc rate (95% CI)Unadj. IRR (95% CI)P-valueAdj. IRR (95% CI)dP-value
Model 1: By female ART coveragea
 0–9%14968092.20 (1.81–2.68)Ref.Ref.
 10–24%33914,1752.40 (2.12–2.71)1.09 (0.85–1.39)0.4950.72 (0.58–0.89)<0.01
 25–34%7432212.30 (1.70–3.11)1.05 (0.73–1.51)0.8050.64 (0.46–0.89)<0.01
 35–55%29416,6691.76 (1.55–2.01)0.80 (0.63–1.02)0.0680.52 (0.40–0.68)<0.01
Model 2: By ART scale-up periodb
 2005–201048920,9842.33 (2.12–2.57)Ref.Ref.
 2011–201531515,3082.06 (1.82–2.33)0.88 (0.75–1.04)0.1470.75 (0.62–0.90)<0.01
 2016–20175245821.15 (0.82–1.60)0.49 (0.34–0.70)<0.010.52 (0.38–0.72)<0.01
Model 3: By yearc
 20056932392.14 (1.57–2.93)0.86 (0.56–1.33)0.5041.50 (1.04–2.16)0.028
 20068035692.24 (1.69–2.96)0.90 (0.59–1.36)0.6211.46 (1.02–2.08)0.038
 20078436342.30 (1.74–3.05)0.93 (0.61–1.42)0.7241.06 (0.74–1.52)0.755
 20088636792.35 (1.78–3.09)0.94 (0.63–1.42)0.7830.98 (0.68–1.41)0.910
 20098534832.45 (1.85–3.24)0.99 (0.65–1.50)0.9471.10 (0.78–1.55)0.599
 20108333772.45 (1.85–3.25)0.99 (0.65–1.50)0.9521.06 (0.76–1.48)0.732
 20117432212.30 (1.70–3.11)0.93 (0.58–1.47)0.7440.92 (0.65–1.30)0.621
 20127530392.49 (1.83–3.37)Ref.Ref.
 20136730332.22 (1.64–3.01)0.89 (0.57–1.39)0.6200.92 (0.65–1.30)0.621
 20145630461.83 (1.29–2.59)0.73 (0.45–1.19)0.2100.65 (0.44–0.96)0.029
 20154129671.39 (0.94–2.07)0.56 (0.34–0.93)0.0250.65 (0.44–0.95)0.027
 20163226021.24 (0.79–1.95)0.50 (0.29–0.87)0.0140.70 (0.47–1.04)0.074
 20172019791.01 (0.58–1.76)0.41 (0.22–0.76)<0.010.39 (0.23–0.67)<0.01
  1. HIV events, person-years, unadjusted IRs, and unadjusted adjusted IRRs are averages over 300 datasets generated by imputing a single random infection date within the censoring interval. Rubin’s rules were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals
  2. aOpposite-sex ART coverage used because of the generalized, heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa, with 0–9% as the reference category
  3. bTime intervals were defined by changes in national criteria for ART eligibility, with 2005–2010 as the reference period
  4. cTime intervals were defined by year, with 2012 as the reference year
  5. dEstimates adjusted for age, self-reported condom use, circumcision and marital status, household assets index, cumulative time spent outside surveillance area, and opposite-sex HIV prevalence in the surrounding community (see Supplementary Table 4 for full results)