Table 1 Global populations on land at risk

From: New elevation data triple estimates of global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding

ModelRCPFrequency20502100
TotalMarginalTotalMarginal
CoastalDEMSRTMCoastalDEMSRTMCoastalDEMSRTMCoastalDEMSRTM
K142.6Permanent150 (130–160)37 (32–43)40 (20–50)9 (4–15)190 (150–250)48 (36–65)80 (40–140)20 (8–37)
RL1300 (270–320)78 (71–86)50 (20–70)13 (6–21)340 (300–400)95 (78–120)90 (50–150)30 (13–55)
4.5Permanent150 (140–170)38 (33–44)40 (30–60)10 (5–16)200 (160–260)52 (39–70)90 (50–150)24 (11–42)
RL1300 (280–320)79 (72–87)50 (30–70)14 (7–22)360 (310–420)100 (82–130)110 (60–170)35 (17–65)
8.5Permanent150 (140–170)39 (33–45)40 (30–60)11 (5–17)230 (180–310)60 (44–85)120 (70–200)32 (16–57)
RL1300 (280–330)80 (73–89)50 (30–80)15 (8–24)390 (330–460)110 (90–150)140 (80–210)45 (25–85)
K172.6Permanent150 (130–170)37 (29–47)40 (20–60)9 (1–19)190 (140–280)50 (32–75)80 (30–170)22 (4–47)
RL1290 (260–330)77 (68–91)40 (10–80)12 (3–26)350 (280–430)97 (72–140)100 (30–180)32 (7–75)
4.5Permanent150 (130–180)38 (30–48)40 (20–70)10 (2–20)250 (170–380)64 (41–110)140 (60–270)36 (13–82)
RL1300 (260–330)78 (68–92)50 (10–80)13 (3–27)400 (320–510)120 (84–180)150 (70–260)55 (19–120)
8.5Permanent150 (130–180)39 (31–50)40 (20–70)11 (3–22)340 (220–520)94 (56–180)230 (110–410)66 (28–152)
RL1300 (270–340)81 (69–95)50 (20–90)16 (4–30)480 (380–630)170 (110–260)230 (130–380)105 (45–200)
  1. Estimates of people (millions) currently on land that may be exposed to permanent inundation or annual flooding (RL1) after projected (median and 90% CI) sea-level rise by the given year. Marginal values are included as well, estimating current occupants of land between present and projected future high tide and RL1. Population data from 2010 was used, when the estimated global total of population was roughly 6800 million