Fig. 10 | Nature Communications

Fig. 10

From: Quantifying the impact of uncertainty on threat management for biodiversity

Fig. 10

Illustration of how species group response curves \({\mathrm{Pr}}\left( {b_i|\theta _i} \right)\) are interpolated for varying levels of threat management effectiveness. The piecewise linear response curve is the solid black line, which is generated from expert estimates. The minimum level of effectiveness required before persistence of the species group increases and the level of effectiveness required to achieve maximum persistence of the species are located at θ = η and θ = μ, respectively. Experts provide four-point estimates that parameterise beta distributions when effectiveness is 0 and 1; these distributions are illustrated in blue in the figure. For values of management effectiveness between η and μ, the four-point estimates given by the experts are linearly interpolated according to the relative distance of the desired point from the extremes estimated by the experts (e.g. for the mode, interpolation is between (η, b0) and (μ, bmax)). The interpolated data are then used to fit \({\mathrm{Pr}}\left( {b_i|\theta _i} \right)\) at the desired management effectiveness (red curve in the figure)

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