Fig. 4 | Nature Communications

Fig. 4

From: Societal decisions about climate mitigation will have dramatic impacts on eutrophication in the 21st century

Fig. 4

Changes in cropland area, developed area, and fertilizer application rate all contribute to changes in future nitrogen loading. Percentage change in mean total nitrogen flux by the end-of-the-century (2071–2100) relative to the historical period (1976–2005) for the six examined scenarios based on projected cropland, developed land, and fertilizer application rates, projected cropland but historical developed land and fertilizer application rates, projected developed land but historical cropland and fertilizer application rate, and projected fertilizer application rates (FAR) but historical land use. Precipitation is kept at historical levels. The projected changes are shown for the continental US (CONUS). Filled bars represent a robust change. Due to the nonlinear form of the model and the impact of interactions among changes in land use and net anthropogenic nitrogen input, the impacts of the three individual components are not simply additive. Net anthropogenic nitrogen input was estimated based on the LUH2 database for both the historical period and future period

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