Addressing human-tiger conflict using socio-ecological information on tolerance and risk

Tigers are critically endangered due to deforestation and persecution. Yet in places, Sumatran tigers (Panthera tigris sumatrae) continue to coexist with people, offering insights for managing wildlife elsewhere. Here, we couple spatial models of encounter risk with information on tolerance from 2386 Sumatrans to reveal drivers of human–tiger conflict. Risk of encountering tigers was greater around populated villages that neighboured forest or rivers connecting tiger habitat; geographic profiles refined these predictions to three core areas. People’s tolerance for tigers was related to underlying attitudes, emotions, norms and spiritual beliefs. Combining this information into socio-ecological models yielded predictions of tolerance that were 32 times better than models based on social predictors alone. Pre-emptive intervention based on these socio-ecological predictions could have averted up to 51% of attacks on livestock and people, saving 15 tigers. Our work provides further evidence of the benefits of interdisciplinary research on conservation conflicts.


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park to be particularly important for tiger movement, whereas open areas away from core forest blocks were less connected (Supplementary Figure 1). Variable contribution w as calculated as a Pearson coefficient of the correlation betw een fitted values and predictions in w hich the target variable w as permutated via a randomisation procedure 8 . Low values indicate low correlation, and hence strong variable contribution to f inal model.   Table 3. Questionnaire items used to measure tolerance for tigers in village surveys.

Variable label Item
Tolerance a (response variable) People's preference foe the size of the local tiger population: 'Do you think that the tiger population around here should be completely eradicated, reduced in number, kept the same or allowed to increase in number?' Affect b BadGood "Even if you have never seen this animal before, we are interested in what you immediately feel about it. Which number best describes your opinion of the animal on the picture card?" DangHarm "Even if you have never seen this animal before, we are interested in what you immediately feel about it. Which number best describes your opinion of the animal on the picture card?" Attitude c Kill tiger "These days I think that tigers in the village, on the farm land around the village and in the forest should be caught." Protect tiger "These days I think that tigers around here should be protected. By around here I mean in the village on the farm land around the village and in the forest." Norms c Injunctive "People around here want you (the men in your household) to catch tigers." Descriptive "Most people like you (like the men in your household) try to catch tigers around here." Beliefs c Spirit "It is beneficial to your spiritual wellbeing to have tiger around here." Health "It is beneficial to your health to have tiger around here." Env "It is detrimental to the health of the environment to have tigers around here." Trust c TrustA "I trust the national park and BKSDA people to make the right decision about how to manage the wild animals that live in this area." TrustB "I trust the national park and BKSDA people to keep people safe from any dangerous animals."

Management scenarios d ScenA
A tiger is seen in the forest-farm area posing no threat to people.

ScenB
A tiger is seen in the forest-farm area and is a threat to people.

ScenC
A tiger near the village has attacked livestock.

ScenD
A tiger near the village has attacked a person.

Demographics
Age "What year were you born?"

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Supplementary Table 4. Numbers and proportions of 75 villages ranked as low, medium or high priority for intervention using measures of human-tiger encounter risk and people's tolerance. The number of independent attacks on livestock or people, as well as tigers removed from these villages is also presented. Priority rank is based on the distribution of encounter risk and tolerance data: 'low' represents below median risk; medium is above median risk and above median tolerance; high is above median risk and below median tolerance. The role of tolerance data in the prioritisation can be deduced by comparing the villages classed as high versus medium risk.