Table 1 Likelihood of anomalously warm years for the next decade

From: A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend

Forecast period GMT SST
1 year: 2018 58% 75%
2 years: 2018–2019 64% 74%
3 years: 2018–2020 70% 71%
4 years: 2018–2021 72% 69%
5 years: 2018–2022 58% 69%
6 years: 2018–2023 55% 65%
7 years: 2018–2024 45% 58%
8 years: 2018–2025 50% 59%
9 years: 2018–2026 49% 60%
10 years: 2018–2027 50% 62%