Table 2 Development policies describing urbanization rates and spatial form based on various urban planning policies

From: Developing China’s Ecological Redline Policy using ecosystem services assessments for land use planning

Scenario Planning and environmental policies Spatial changes
Baseline 2014 Current land use and land cover with targeted ecological redline areas (ERAs) for 2014, which are ERAs from the analysis. (1) Constructed land = 42%, (2) agriculture = 35%, (3) forests = 12%, (4) open water = 9%, and (5) beach = 2%
Development 2040 No implementation of Ecological Redline Policy (ERP), and no new policies to constrain growth. Uncontrolled urbanization with population size of 31 million (25% total growth rate) and 5% GDP growth rate for 2040. (1) Constructed land = +6%, (2) agriculture = −7%, (3) forest = +3%, (4) open water = −1%, and (5) beach = −1%
Ecological Redline Policy 2040 Expansion of ERAs by 501 km2 by: (1) planting vegetation buffers along river banks and (2) transforming industrial and agricultural areas to forests (afforestation). Condensed urbanization with projected population size of 25 million (4% total growth rate) and 5% GDP growth rate for 2040. (1) Constructed land = −4%, (2) agriculture = −4%, (3) forest = +9%, (4) open water = 0%, and (5) beach = 0%
Planning Scenario 2040 Implementation of existing ecological protection policies outlined in Shanghai’s Urban Plans (1999–2020; 2016–2040), excluding the ERP. Projected population size of 25 million (4% total growth rate) and 5% GDP growth rate for 2040. (1) Constructed land = +1%, (2) agriculture = −4%, (3) forest = +5%, (4) open water = 0%, and (5) beach = −1%