Table 2 Estimated annual health impacts of global shipping in 2020 in the BAU case and the 2020 Action case with IMO low-sulphur fuel standard, where parentheses indicate 95% confidence intervals based on relative risk calculations

From: Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs

Scenario results (linear C–R model) Mortality estimate (annul premature adult deathsa) Childhood asthma (million cases)
BAU 2020 (No implementation of global 0.5% S fuel standard) CV mortality 349,000 (CI 95%: 200,300; 501,800) 14.0 (CI 95%: 7.5; 21.0)
LC mortality 54,300 (CI 95%: 12,000; 93,600)
Combined mortality 403,300 (CI 95%: 212,300; 595,400)
2020 Action (Implementation of global 0.5% S fuel standard in 2020) CV mortality 226,800 (CI 95%: 129,800; 327,000) 6.4 (CI 95%: 4.1; 11.5)
LC mortality 39,500 (CI 95%: 8,700; 68,700)
Combined mortality 266,300 (CI 95%: 138,500; 395,700)
Health benefit of 2020 Action Avoided mortalityb Avoided morbidity
CV: 122,200 (CI 95%: 70,500; 174,800) 7.6 (CI 95%: 3.4; 9.6)
LC: 14,800 (CI 95%: 3,300: 24,900)
Combined: 137,000 (CI 95%: 73,800; 199,700)