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Market concentration of new antibiotic sales


We calculate the average sales of new antibiotics during their first 8 years on the market. The discounted net present value is only $240 m in total per antibiotic, well below costs of supplying these products. The reliance on the US for sales is striking: the US market accounts for 84% of sales during the first 8 years. These facts clarify the need for additional revenues, especially from other countries, to support incentives for the development of new antibiotics. Market entry rewards may be of particular value.

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Funding for this work comes from the Canadian Institute for Health Research (grant number pending), the Swiss National Fund (grant number 40AR40_180205/1), and the Swedish Research Council (grant number 2017-05973), coordinated via the Joint Programming Initiative on Antimicrobial Resistance, and the Major Innovation Fund program of the Ministry of Jobs, Economy and Innovation, Government of Alberta through the AMR – One Health Consortium. The funders have no involvement in the research itself.

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Correspondence to Aidan Hollis.

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Rahman, S., Lindahl, O., Morel, C.M. et al. Market concentration of new antibiotic sales. J Antibiot 74, 421–423 (2021).

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