Impact of a novel prognostic model, hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR), on allogeneic transplant outcomes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome

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Outcomes after allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (AHSCT) are influenced by both disease- and patient-related factors. Here, we developed a novel prognostic model, hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR), by combining the refined disease risk index (DRI-R) and hematopoietic stem-cell transplant comorbidity/age index (HCT-CI/Age) to predict post-transplant survival for patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS). The analysis included 942 AML/MDS patients treated with AHSCT. Patients were stratified into 4 HCT-CR risk groups: Low-risk—patients with low/intermediate DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age ≤3 (N = 272); Intermediate-risk—patients with low/intermediate DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age >3 (N = 168); High-risk—patients with high/very high DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age ≤3 (N = 284); and Very high-risk—patients with high/very high DRI-R and HCT-CI/Age >3 (N = 184). Compared with the low-risk group, intermediate, high, and very high-risk groups had a significantly increased risk of death [adjusted HR of 1.37 (P < 0.04), 2.08 (P < 0.001), and 2.92 (P < 0.001), respectively]. The concordance test showed that the HCT-CR model provided better discriminative capacity for OS prediction compared with all prior models independently, including cytogenetic risk group, DRI-R, and HCT-CI/Age model (C-indices: 0.62, 0.55, 0.60, and 0.54, respectively) (P < 0.001). In conclusion, combining disease- and patient-related factors provides better survival stratification for patients with AML/MDS receiving AHSCT.

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Author contributions

PK contributed with study design, data analysis, interpretation, and wrote the manuscript; SP contributed with interpretation of the study results, reviewed and approved the manuscript; DRM contributed with data analysis, interpretation of the results, wrote, reviewed and approved the manuscript; JMRP contributed with manuscript writing, reviewed and approved the manuscript; GR, JC, and AC contributed with data collection, reviewed and approved the manuscript; GA, AA, BSA, JSI, CMH, QB, IK, PK, BO, UP, and RC contributed with treatment of patients, reviewed and approved the manuscript; SOC contributed with study design, data collection and interpretation of results, and manuscript writing.

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Correspondence to Stefan O. Ciurea.

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Kongtim, P., Parmar, S., Milton, D.R. et al. Impact of a novel prognostic model, hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR), on allogeneic transplant outcomes in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. Bone Marrow Transplant 54, 839–848 (2019) doi:10.1038/s41409-018-0344-9

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