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Shrinkage estimation of long-term water ingestion rates

Abstract

Background

Water consumption is a necessity for human life, though it also presents an opportunity for exposure to harmful chemicals and toxins. In order to gain a better understanding of the potential levels of chronic exposure, accurate estimates of long-term water consumption are needed.

Objective

The objective of this study is to estimate long-term water consumption using a nationally representative sample of the US population.

Methods

In this study, we use a random effects model to obtain shrinkage estimates of average daily water consumption for National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) participants from 2005 to 2010, and compare to their empirical 2-day averages.

Results

Our results demonstrate that the shrinkage estimates yielded a reduction in estimated mean water consumption. The 95th percentile was reduced from 3292 to 2529 ml/day. In addition, standard deviation of water consumption for this group decreased from 1052 to 688 ml/day. Similar reductions in the mean and variance were observed stratifying by age and race.

Significance

Random effects models may provide a more accurate measure of daily water consumption and could be utilized for future exposure and risk assessments.

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Fig. 1: Empirical vs shrinkage estimates of water Consumption.
Fig. 2: Distribution of water consumption.
Fig. 3: Boxplot of water consumption estimates.

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Correspondence to Nicholas Cuvelier.

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Conflict of interest

SMB serves as a compensated expert witness for plaintiffs in medical monitoring lawsuits regarding drinking water contamination in New Hampshire. The terms of this arrangement were reviewed and approved by the University of California Irvine in accordance with its conflict of interest policies.

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Cuvelier, N., Bartell, S.M. Shrinkage estimation of long-term water ingestion rates. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 31, 990–998 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41370-021-00300-0

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