Abstract
Risk of progression to IDDM has been assessed extensively in first degree relatives of patients with IDDM and highly specific prediction is possible within a small subset of this population. Since around 90% of future cases will come from those who have no close relative with IDDM, prediction and intervention within the general population will become the main priority for the future. Risk of progression to IDDM can be assessed by means of a decision tree analysis. This highlights the different prognosis of markers when applied to those with and without a family history of the disease, and provides a logical approach to disease prediction. Large numbers of first degree relatives must be screened in order to recruit sufficient numbers of high risk individuals for prospective study or controlled trials of intervention. This implies the need for careful standardization and multicentre collaborative studies. This approach should allow new predictive markers and models to be evaluated, and strategies of intervention to be tested, with maximum efficiency and minimal delay.
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Gale, E. POPULATION SCREENING FOR RISK OF IDDM. Pediatr Res 33 (Suppl 5), S8 (1993). https://doi.org/10.1203/00006450-199305001-00033
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1203/00006450-199305001-00033