Epidemiology

Lifetime risk of diabetes mellitus — how high?

Article metrics

Studies on lifetime risk of the range of glucose impairments are scarce. A new study by Ligthart and colleagues reports that half of all people who initially have normal blood levels of glucose eventually develop prediabetes mellitus and most of these individuals progress to type 2 diabetes mellitus, with 9% eventually requiring insulin therapy.

Access optionsAccess options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

References

  1. 1

    International Diabetes Federation. IDF diabetes atlas: 7th edition. [online], (2015).

  2. 2

    Ligthart, S. et al. Lifetime risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism and eventual progression from prediabetes to type 2 diabetes: a prospective cohort study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-8587(15)00362-9 (2015).

  3. 3

    Lloyd-Jones, D. M., Larson, M. G., Beiser, A. & Levy, D. Lifetime risk of developing coronary heart disease. Lancet 353, 89–92 (1999).

  4. 4

    Feuer, E. J. et al. The lifetime risk of developing breast cancer. J. Natl Cancer Inst. 85, 892–897 (1993).

  5. 5

    Narayan, K. M. et al. Lifetime risk for diabetes mellitus in the United States. JAMA 290, 1884–1890 (2003).

  6. 6

    Gregg, E. W. et al. Trends in lifetime risk and years of life lost due to diabetes in the USA, 1985–2011: a modelling study. Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2, 867–874 (2014).

  7. 7

    Magliano, D. J. et al. Lifetime risk and projected population prevalence of diabetes. Diabetologia 51, 2179–2186 (2008).

  8. 8

    World Health Organization. Definition and diagnosis of diabetes mellitus and intermediate hyperglycemia. [online], (2006).

  9. 9

    Paulweber, B. et al. A European evidence-based guideline for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. Horm. Metab. Res. 42, S3–S36 (2010).

  10. 10

    Lindström, J. et al. Improved lifestyle and decreased diabetes risk over 13 years: long-term follow-up of the randomised Finnish Diabetes Prevention Study (DPS). Diabetologia 56, 284–293 (2013).

Download references

Author information

Correspondence to Jaakko Tuomilehto.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

PowerPoint slides

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Further reading