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Forecasting market share in the US pharmaceutical market

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery volume 14, pages 594–595 (2015)Cite this article

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Drug development is costly, and so drug makers need accurate estimates of sales potential. However, sales forecasts are often unreliable (Nat. Rev. Drug Discov. 12, 737–738; 2013). Here, we present an analysis of data concerning entry order and promotional spending from a large sample of drug classes, to estimate peak market share while controlling for product quality (see Supplementary information S1 (box) for details of the data and analysis methods).

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Figure 1: Forecasting the market share of drugs in the US market.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Novartis Pharma AG, Novartis Campus, Basel, 4056, Switzerland

    Stephane A. Regnier

  2. Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, 27708, North Carolina, USA

    David B. Ridley

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  1. Stephane A. Regnier
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  2. David B. Ridley
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Correspondence to Stephane A. Regnier or David B. Ridley.

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Competing interests

Stephane A. Régnier is an employee of Novartis Pharma AG. The views in the article are those of the authors, not necessarily those of Novartis Pharma AG.

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FURTHER INFORMATION

Haute Autorité de Santé

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Supplementary information

Supplementary information S1 (Box)

Data and analysis methods (PDF 1456 kb)

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Regnier, S., Ridley, D. Forecasting market share in the US pharmaceutical market. Nat Rev Drug Discov 14, 594–595 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4697

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