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Pharmaceutical forecasting: throwing darts?

Nature Reviews Drug Discovery volume 12, pages 737–738 (2013)Cite this article

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Furthermore, given the vicissitudes of the external environment, the uncertainty of drug development and the unpredictable actions of competitors, weaving an array of scientific, clinical, regulatory and commercial data into a numerical representation of value for a drug is a substantial challenge. However, such forecasting is a crucial activity that affects many decisions inside a pharmaceutical company: for example, designing a clinical programme; deploying sales force resources; making decisions on geographic resource allocation; or acquiring a company or licensing assets. Additionally, drug forecasts are one of the most important inputs into investors' decisions to buy or sell shares of a company.

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Figure 1: Inaccuracy in pharmaceutical forecasting.
Figure 2: Forecast accuracy across various segments of drugs.

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  1. Myoung Cha, J.D., M.B.A., Bassel Rifai, Ph.D., and Pasha Sarraf, M.D., Ph.D., are at McKinsey & Company, 55 East 52nd Street, New York, New York 10055, USA.

    Myoung Cha, Bassel Rifai & Pasha Sarraf

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  1. Myoung Cha
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  2. Bassel Rifai
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  3. Pasha Sarraf
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Correspondence to Myoung Cha.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Cha, M., Rifai, B. & Sarraf, P. Pharmaceutical forecasting: throwing darts?. Nat Rev Drug Discov 12, 737–738 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/nrd4127

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