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The author, a longstanding authority on predictions, sets out the objectives and difficulties that need to be confronted, and provides examples of the use of predictions.
Hakulinen, T. et al. in Evaluating Effectiveness of Primary Prevention of Cancer (eds Hakama, M., Beral, V., Cullen, V. & Parkin, D. M.) 133–148 (International Agency for Research on Cancer Scientific Publications, Lyon, 1990).
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One of the first papers to apply scenario-based predictions to test the impact of starting and stopping smoking on future lung cancer burden.
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Innovative study that asked professionals working across the cancer spectrum for their expert opinion on how cancer prevention and treatment could affect a given set of cancer incidence and mortality predictions.
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Stockton, D. Cancer in Scotland:Sustaining Change. Cancer Incidence Projections for Scotland (2001–2020). An Aid to Planning Cancer Services (NHS Scotland, Edinburgh, 2004). http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20257/46697
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Unsurpassed account of the numerous artefacts that need to be considered when deciphering time trends of cancer.
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Comprehensive overview and discussion of geographical and temporal variations of common cancers worldwide, with a section describing the impact of demographic changes on future cancer burden.
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Hakulinen, T. & Dyba, T. Precision of incidence predictions based on poisson distributed observations. Statist. Med. 13, 1513–1523 (1994).
Hakulinen, T., Teppo, L. & Saxén, E. Do the predictions for cancer incidence come true? Experience from Finland. Cancer 57, 2454–2458 (1986).
Moller, B., Weedon-Fekjaer, H. & Haldorsen, T. Empirical evaluation of prediction intervals for cancer incidence. BMC Med. Res. Methodol. 5, 21 (2005).
Illustrative example of how a comprehensive set of predictions can be made on the basis of long-term cancer registry data.
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