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Research investment implications of shifts in the global geography of wheat stripe rust

Nature Plants volume 1, Article number: 15132 (2015) Cite this article

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Abstract

Breeding new crop varieties with resistance to the biotic stresses that undermine crop yields is tantamount to increasing the amount and quality of biological capital in agriculture. However, the success of genes that confer resistance to pests induces a co-evolutionary response that depreciates the biological capital embodied in the crop, as pests evolve the capacity to overcome the crop's new defences. Thus, simply maintaining this biological capital, and the beneficial production and economic outcomes it bestows, requires continual reinvestment in new crop defences. Here we use observed and modelled data on stripe rust occurrence to gauge changes in the geographic spread of the disease over recent decades. We document a significant increase in the spread of stripe rust since 1960, with 88% of the world's wheat production now susceptible to infection. Using a probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation model we estimate that 5.47 million tonnes of wheat are lost to the pathogen each year, equivalent to a loss of US$979 million per year. Comparing the cost of developing stripe-rust-resistant varieties of wheat with the cost of stripe-rust-induced yield losses, we estimate that a sustained annual research investment of at least US$32 million into stripe rust resistance is economically justified.

Global average wheat yields grew by 2.95% per year from 1961 to 1990, but grew at less than a third that rate (0.85% per year) for 1990–2012 (ref. 1). Changes in how, where and when crops are grown affect the pace of crop yield and output growth2. These changes can induce or be induced by breeding new crop varieties with resistance to the biotic (pests and diseases) and abiotic (soil, terrain and climate) stresses that affect crop yields. In such a light, genes conferring resistance can be viewed as a form of biological capital that enhances the production and economic outcomes of farmers. For genes conferring resistance to pests and diseases, the durability of this biological capital is challenged by the ensuing co-evolutionary dance their deployment triggers. Pests facing the new selection pressure evolve the capacity to overcome the plant's defences, effectively depreciating the biological capital, possibly to the point of biological obsolescence.

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Figure 1: The expanding geography of crop losses attributable to stripe rust, before and after 2000.
Figure 2: Modelled global climate vulnerability for stripe rust.

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Acknowledgements

We thank R. Singh for technical guidance. In addition, attendees of the Borlaug Global Rust Initiative (BGRI) meetings at New Delhi (August 2013) and Obregon, Mexico (March 2014) and the Second International Wheat Stripe Rust Symposium at Izmir, Turkey (April 2014) provided valuable comments and feedback. A substantial portion of the funding was provided by the Wheat CRP by way of the International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) with additional support from the University of Minnesota's MnDRIVE Global Food Ventures Initiative and the International Science and Technology Practice and Policy (InSTePP) Center. R.F.P. and W.C. received support from the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Science and Technology Practice and Policy (InSTePP) Center in the Department of Applied Economics at the University of Minnesota, 1994 Buford Ave, 248 Ruttan Hall, Saint Paul, 55108, Minnesota, USA

    Jason M. Beddow, Philip G. Pardey, Yuan Chai, Terrance M. Hurley, Darren J. Kriticos & Tania Yonow

  2. Stakman-Bourlaug Cereal Rust Center at the University of Minnesota, 495 Borlaug Hall, 1991 Upper Buford Circle, Saint Paul, 55108, Minnesota, USA

    Jason M. Beddow, Philip G. Pardey & Terrance M. Hurley

  3. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), GPO Box 1700, Canberra, 2601, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

    Jason M. Beddow, Philip G. Pardey, Terrance M. Hurley, Darren J. Kriticos & Tania Yonow

  4. International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), El Batán, Texcoco, Edo. de México, 56237, Mexico

    Hans-Joachim Braun

  5. Plant Breeding Institute at the University of Sydney, Private Bag 4011, Narellan, 2567, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Robert F. Park

  6. New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, NSW DPI, Locked Bag 21, Orange, 2800, New South Wales, Australia

    William S. Cuddy

Authors
  1. Jason M. Beddow
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  2. Philip G. Pardey
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  3. Yuan Chai
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  4. Terrance M. Hurley
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  5. Darren J. Kriticos
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  6. Hans-Joachim Braun
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  7. Robert F. Park
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  8. William S. Cuddy
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  9. Tania Yonow
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Contributions

P.G.P., J.M.B. and T.M.H. designed the study and methods; D.J.K., J.M.B., Y.C., R.F.P., H.J.B., T.Y. and W.S.C. compiled and interpreted distribution data and developed the species niche model; Y.C. and T.M.H. undertook the probabilistic assessment; J.M.B. implemented the spatial assessment; P.G.P., J.M.B., T.M.H., Y.C., R.F.P. and W.S.C. wrote the paper.

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Correspondence to Jason M. Beddow.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Beddow, J., Pardey, P., Chai, Y. et al. Research investment implications of shifts in the global geography of wheat stripe rust. Nature Plants 1, 15132 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nplants.2015.132

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