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Rogue waves

Predicting the unpredictable?

Nature Photonics volume 9, pages 560–562 (2015)Cite this article

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Methods of nonlinear time series analysis shed new light on the nature and predictability of extreme events.

Ocean rogue waves — unusually large waves that can emerge out of the blue far out in open water — are rare1. Because of their high amplitude and sudden appearance, they pose a genuine threat to ships, even large ones. Maritime folklore has told of their existence for centuries, but hard scientific evidence remained elusive until 1 January 1995, when one such monster was detected at the Draupner platform in the North Sea1.

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Figure 1: Nonlinear time series analysis provides clues of rogue event predictability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Miro Erkintalo is with the Finnish Cultural Foundation and the Department of Physics at the University of Auckland, 38 Princes Street, Auckland 1010, New Zealand,

    Miro Erkintalo

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  1. Miro Erkintalo
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Correspondence to Miro Erkintalo.

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Erkintalo, M. Predicting the unpredictable?. Nature Photon 9, 560–562 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nphoton.2015.161

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