Supplementary Figure 8: Average HGF-parameter estimates across groups. | Nature Neuroscience

Supplementary Figure 8: Average HGF-parameter estimates across groups.

From: Adults with autism overestimate the volatility of the sensory environment

Supplementary Figure 8

Individual participant parameter estimates for each of the free parameters estimated from the HGF, for both the ASD (n=24) and NT (n=25) groups. A statistically significant MANOVA effect indicated that the groups would differ on one or more of the estimated model parameters, Pillai’s’ Trace =.43, F(8, 40) = 3.81, P=0.002). Independent samples t-tests indicate a significant group difference in baseline log RT (β0; t(47) = 2.33, P=0.024), phasic volatility (β4; t(47) = 2.15, P=0.037) and tonic volatility at the third level (ω3; t(47)=2.10, P=0.045). Outcome surprise (β1; t(47) = -1.73, P=0.09) and outcome uncertainty (β2; t(47) = -1.87, P=0.06) narrowly missed significance. There were no group differences in probability uncertainty (β3; t(47) = -.51, P=0.61), decision noise (ζ; t(47) = -.55, P=0.59) or tonic volatility at the second level (ω2; -.21, P=0.84). See the main text and Figure 4b for a multiple linear regression analysis predicting group status from these same parameters. ASD, autism spectrum disorder. NT, neurotypical. Data points represent individual participants, shaded regions and error bars show 95% confidence intervals and 1 standard deviation of the mean, red lines indicate the group mean. Star indicates significance at P<0.05

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