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Halfway to doubling of CO2 radiative forcing

Nature Geoscience volume 10, pages 710–711 (2017)Cite this article

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To the Editor —

The doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations has become a standard experiment in climate science, and a convenient way of comparing the sensitivity of different climate models. It was introduced by Arrhenius1 in the nineteenth century, and used in the classic paper by Manabe and Wetherald2, which marked the start of the modern era of climate modelling. The doubling of CO2 now has an iconic role in climate research. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is defined as the global mean surface temperature change resulting from a doubling of CO23,4,5, which is a headline result in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. In its most recent assessment, the IPCC concluded5 that the ECS “is likely in the range 1.5 to 4.5 °C”. We show that we are now halfway to doubling the radiative forcing of CO2 since pre-industrial times, although concentrations are not halfway to doubling.

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Figure 1: Radiative forcing due to CO2 and all WMGHGs.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research (CICERO), Oslo, 0318, Norway

    Gunnar Myhre

  2. NILU-Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, 2027, Norway

    Cathrine Lund Myhre

  3. University of Leeds, Leeds, UK, LS2 9JT

    Piers M. Forster

  4. Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UK

    Keith P. Shine

Authors
  1. Gunnar Myhre
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  2. Cathrine Lund Myhre
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  3. Piers M. Forster
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  4. Keith P. Shine
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Correspondence to Gunnar Myhre.

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Myhre, G., Myhre, C., Forster, P. et al. Halfway to doubling of CO2 radiative forcing. Nature Geosci 10, 710–711 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3036

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