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Regional energy budget control of the intertropical convergence zone and application to mid-Holocene rainfall

Nature Geoscience volume 9, pages 892–897 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

Shifts in the latitude of the intertropical convergence zone—a region of intense tropical rainfall—have often been explained through changes in the atmospheric energy budget, specifically through theories that tie rainfall to meridional energy fluxes. These quantitative theories can explain shifts in the zonal mean, but often have limited relevance for regional climate shifts, such as a period of enhanced precipitation over Saharan Africa during the mid-Holocene. Here we present a theory for regional tropical rainfall shifts that utilizes both zonal and meridional energy fluxes. We first identify a qualitative link between zonal and meridional energy fluxes and rainfall variations associated with the seasonal cycle and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. We then develop a quantitative theory based on these fluxes that relates atmospheric energy transport to tropical rainfall. When applied to the orbital configuration of the mid-Holocene, our theory predicts continental rainfall shifts over Africa and Southeast Asia that are consistent with complex model simulations. However, the predicted rainfall over the Sahara is not sufficient to sustain vegetation at a level seen in the palaeo-record, which instead requires an additional large energy source such as that due to reductions in Saharan surface albedo. We thus conclude that additional feedbacks, such as those involving changes in vegetation or soil type, are required to explain changes in rainfall over Africa during the mid-Holocene.

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Figure 1: One-dimensional perspective on the importance of zonal energy fluxes during the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.
Figure 2: Two-dimensional views of precipitation and divergent energy transports, visualized using the energy flux potential, χ.
Figure 3: Climate model simulations and theoretical prediction of boreal summer response to mid-Holocene insolation anomaly.
Figure 4: Response of African summer rainfall to mid-Holocene insolation and albedo changes.

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Acknowledgements

W.R.B. was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grants AGS-1253222 and AGS-1515960, and by Office of Naval Research grant N00014-15-1-2531. R.L.K. was supported by NSF grant AGS-1064013. W.R.B. thanks D. McGee and M. Biasutti for helpful discussions, and A. Voigt and A. Donohoe for comments that improved the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut 06511, USA

    William R. Boos

  2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas 77843, USA

    Robert L. Korty

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  1. William R. Boos
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Contributions

W.R.B. conceived the study, devised and applied the theory to the PMIP models and observational data, and integrated and analysed the idealized model described in the Supplementary Information. R.L.K. analysed the PMIP data, and both authors contributed to writing the manuscript and interpreting results.

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Correspondence to William R. Boos.

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Boos, W., Korty, R. Regional energy budget control of the intertropical convergence zone and application to mid-Holocene rainfall. Nature Geosci 9, 892–897 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2833

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