Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead

Abstract

The winter North Atlantic Oscillation is the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region and has a profound influence on European and North American winter climate. Until recently, seasonal variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation was thought to be largely driven by chaotic and inherently unpredictable processes1,2. However, latest generation seasonal forecasting systems have demonstrated significant skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation when initialized a month before the onset of winter3,4,5. Here we extend skilful dynamical model predictions to more than a year ahead. The skill increases greatly with ensemble size due to a spuriously small signal-to-noise ratio in the model, and consequently larger ensembles are projected to further increase the skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation. We identify two sources of skill for second-winter forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation: climate variability in the tropical Pacific region and predictable effects of solar forcing on the stratospheric polar vortex strength. We also identify model biases in Arctic sea ice that, if reduced, may further increase skill. Our results open possibilities for a range of new climate services, including for the transport6,7, energy, water management8 and insurance sectors.

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Figure 1: First- and second-winter NAO skill.
Figure 2: The signal-to-noise paradox.
Figure 3: Potential sources of winter NAO skill.
Figure 4: Multiple linear regression analysis.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Joint DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101), the EU FP7 SPECS project and the UK-China Research & Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund.

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N.D. led the analysis. N.D., D.S. and A.S. wrote the paper with comments from all other authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Nick Dunstone.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Scaife, A. et al. Skilful predictions of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation one year ahead. Nature Geosci 9, 809–814 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2824

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