Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus

Nature Geoscience volume 9, pages 29–33 (2016)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The Earth’s energy budget for the past four decades can now be closed1, and it supports anthropogenic greenhouse forcing as the cause for climate warming. However, closure depends on invoking an unrealistically large increase in aerosol cooling2 during the so-called global warming hiatus since the late 1990s (refs 3,4) that was due partly to tropical Pacific Ocean cooling5,6,7. The difficulty with this closure lies in the assumption that the same climate feedback applies to both anthropogenic warming and natural cooling. Here we analyse climate model simulations with and without anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gas concentrations, and show that top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature are much less tightly coupled for natural decadal variability than for the greenhouse-gas-induced response, implying distinct climate feedback between anthropogenic warming and natural variability. In addition, we identify a phase difference between top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and global mean surface temperature such that ocean heat uptake tends to slow down during the surface warming hiatus. This result deviates from existing energy theory but we find that it is broadly consistent with observations. Our study highlights the importance of developing metrics that distinguish anthropogenic change from natural variations to attribute climate variability and to estimate climate sensitivity from observations.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Relationship between GMT and TOA radiation in natural decadal variability.
Figure 2: Patterns of natural variability.
Figure 3: Role of ocean dynamics in natural variability.
Figure 4: GMT, TOA radiation and OHC during hiatus.

References

  1. IPCC Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) 33–115 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  2. Murphy, D. M. Little net clear-sky radiative forcing from recent regional redistribution of aerosols. Nature Geosci. 6, 258–262 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Murphy, D. M. et al. An observationally based energy balance for the Earth since 1950. J. Geophys. Res. 114, D17107 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Church, J. A. et al. Revisiting the Earth’s sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L18601 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. X. & Trenberth, K. E. Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change 1, 360–364 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S.-P. Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. England, M. H. et al. Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Gregory, J. M. et al. A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L03205 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  9. Watanabe, M. et al. Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus. Nature Clim. Change 4, 893–897 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Schmidt, G. A., Shindell, D. T. & Tsigaridis, K. Reconciling warming trends. Nature Geosci. 7, 158–160 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Santer, B. D. et al. Volcanic contribution to decadal changes in tropospheric temperature. Nature Geosci. 7, 185–189 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Levitus, S. et al. World ocean heat content and thermosteric sea level change (0–2000 m), 1955–2010. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10603 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T. & Balmaseda, M. A. Earth’s energy imbalance. J. Clim. 27, 3129–3144 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Loeb, N. G. et al. Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty. Nature Geosci. 5, 110–113 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Liu, Z. Dynamics of interdecadal climate variability: A historical perspective. J. Clim. 25, 1963–1995 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Zhang, Y., Wallace, J. M. & Battisti, D. S. ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900–93. J. Clim. 10, 1004–1020 (1997).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Power, S., Casey, T., Folland, C., Colman, A. V. & Mehta, V. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim. Dynam. 15, 319–324 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Chen, X. & Tung, K.-K. Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration. Science 345, 897–903 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Clement, A. C., DiNezio, P. & Deser, C. Rethinking the ocean’s role in the Southern Oscillation. J. Clim. 24, 4056–4072 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. Okumura, Y. M. Origins of tropical Pacific decadal variability: Role of stochastic atmospheric forcing from the South Pacific. J. Clim. 26, 9791–9796 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Smith, D. M. et al. Earth’s energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 1205–1213 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Allan, R. P. et al. Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5588–5597 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Cheng, L. & Zhu, J. Artifacts in variations of ocean heat content induced by the observation system changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 7276–7283 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Brown, P. T., Li, W., Li, L. & Ming, Y. Top-of-atmosphere radiative contribution to unforced decadal global temperature variability in climate models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 5175–5183 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Palmer, M. D. & McNeall, D. J. Internal variability of Earth’s energy budget simulated by CMIP5 climate models. Environ. Res. Lett. 9, 034016 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Dalton, M. D. & Shell, K. M. Comparison of short-term and long-term radiative feedbacks and variability in twentieth-century global climate model simulations. J. Clim. 26, 10051–10070 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. Katsman, C. A. & van Oldenborgh, G. J. Tracing the upper ocean’s “missing heat”. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L14610 (2011).

    Google Scholar 

  28. Roemmich, D. et al. Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006. Nature Clim. Change 5, 240–245 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P. & von Schuckmann, K. Earth’s energy imbalance and implications. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 11, 13421–13449 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Ishii, M. & Kimoto, M. Reevaluation of historical ocean heat content variations with time-varying XBT and MBT depth bias corrections. J. Oceanogr. 65, 287–299 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Lyman, J. M. et al. Robust warming of the global upper ocean. Nature 465, 334–337 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Palmer, M. D., Haines, K., Tett, S. F. B. & Ansell, T. J. Isolating the signal of ocean global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L23610 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Willis, J. K., Roemmich, D. & Cornuelle, B. Interannual variability in upper ocean heat content, temperature, and thermosteric expansion on global scales. J. Geophys. Res. 109, C12036 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Gouretski, V. & Reseghetti, F. On depth and temperature biases in bathythermograph data: Development of a new correction scheme based on analysis of a global ocean database. Deep-Sea Res. I 57, 812–833 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Domingues, C. M. et al. Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise. Nature 453, 1090–1093 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Forster, P. M. et al. Evaluating adjusted forcing and model spread for historical and future scenarios in the CMIP5 generation of climate models. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 1139–1150 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  37. Gent, P. R. et al. The community climate system model version 4. J. Clim. 24, 4973–4991 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Spencer, R. W. & Braswell, W. D. On the misdiagnosis of surface temperature feedbacks from variations in Earth’s radiant energy balance. Remote Sensing 3, 1603–1613 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Dee, D. P. et al. The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set. J. Geophys. Res. 117, D08101 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

S.-P.X. and Y.M.O. are supported by the US National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Y.K. is supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology through Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists 15H05466 and by the Japanese Ministry of Environment through the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 2-1503. The CAM4-OML output is provided by R. Thomas and C. Deser of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 0206, La Jolla, California 92093, USA

    Shang-Ping Xie

  2. Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan

    Yu Kosaka

  3. Institute for Geophysics, University of Texas at Austin, 10100 Burnet Road, Austin, Texas 78758, USA

    Yuko M. Okumura

Authors
  1. Shang-Ping Xie
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Yu Kosaka
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Yuko M. Okumura
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

S.-P.X. conceived the study and wrote the paper. Y.K. and Y.M.O. contributed to the development of the idea and performed the analysis. All the authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shang-Ping Xie.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 1026 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Xie, SP., Kosaka, Y. & Okumura, Y. Distinct energy budgets for anthropogenic and natural changes during global warming hiatus. Nature Geosci 9, 29–33 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2581

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2581

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing