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Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked plate interface

Nature Geoscience volume 7, pages 117–121 (2014)Cite this article

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Abstract

The Nicoya Peninsula in Costa Rica is one of the few places on Earth where the seismically active plate interface of a subduction zone is directly overlaid by land rather than ocean. At this plate interface, large megathrust earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 occur approximately every 50 years. Such quakes occurred in 1853, 1900 and 1950, so another large earthquake had been anticipated1,2. Land-based Global Positioning System3,4 (GPS) and seismic5,6,7 measurements revealed a region where the plate interface was locked and hence accumulated seismic strain that could be released in future earthquakes. On 5 September 2012, the long-anticipated Nicoya earthquake occurred in the heart of the previously identified locked patch. Here we report observations of coseismic deformation from GPS and geomorphic data along the Nicoya Peninsula and show that the magnitude 7.6 Nicoya earthquake ruptured the lateral and down-dip extent of the previously locked region of the plate interface. We also identify a previously locked part of the plate interface, located immediately offshore, that may not have slipped during the 2012 earthquake, where monitoring should continue. By pairing observations of the spatial extent of interseismic locking and subsequent coseismic rupture, we demonstrate the use of detailed near-field geodetic investigations during the late interseismic period for identifying future earthquake potential.

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Figure 1: Past large earthquakes, previous microseismicity and aftershocks.
Figure 2: Observed and modelled coseismic deformation of the 2012 Nicoya earthquake.
Figure 3: Observations of earthquake-induced changes in a coastal estuary.
Figure 4: Comparison of late-interseismic coupling and coseismic displacement.

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Acknowledgements

We thank the field team including S. Polster, J. Richardson, D. Voytenko, G. Barcheck, S. Morrish, E. Menjivar and E. Hernandez. We thank the now finished NSF MARGINS programme for providing regional focus for studying seismogenic zone processes in Costa Rica. Support to S.Y.S. and T.H.D. was provided by NSF no. 0847382 and 1140261, support to J.S.M. was provided by NSF no. 0948312 and support to A.V.N. was provided by NSF no. 1262267 and 0847382.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Observatorio Vulcanológico y Sismológico de Costa Rica (OVSICORI), Universidad Nacional, Apartado 1718-3000, Heredia 3000, Costa Rica

    Marino Protti & Victor González

  2. School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, 311 Ferst Drive, Atlanta, Georgia 30332-0340, USA

    Andrew V. Newman & Jacob I. Walter

  3. Department of Geology, University of South Florida, 4202 E Fowler Ave, Tampa, Florida 33620, USA

    Timothy H. Dixon & Rocco Malservisi

  4. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, California 95064, USA

    Susan Y. Schwartz

  5. Geological Sciences Department, Cal Poly Pomona, 3801 West Temple Ave., Pomona, California 91768, USA

    Jeffrey S. Marshall

  6. Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Block N2-1A-15, 639798, Singapore

    Lujia Feng

  7. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, MS 238-600, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, California 91109, USA

    Susan E. Owen

Authors
  1. Marino Protti
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Contributions

M.P. and V.G. provided original insight of Nicoya earthquake vulnerability and long-term dedication and support to field research in Nicoya, including the post-earthquake campaign. A.V.N. obtained NSF funds, managed the post-earthquake field campaign and coordinated efforts on this manuscript. S.Y.S. and T.H.D. established and maintain much of the Nicoya seismic network and the continuous GPS network, respectively. J.S.M. carried out pre- and post-earthquake field geomorphic studies and provided final geomorphic results. A.V.N., S.Y.S., T.H.D., M.P. and J.S.M. provided individuals for the field campaign. J.I.W. carried out early aftershock analysis and provided Fig. 1. S.E.O. provided initial rapid GPS solutions for rapid field assessment. R.M. provided final GPS solutions. L.F. provided rapid and final inversion models for coseismic slip and Fig. 4, Supplementary Figs 2 and 3. A.V.N. wrote the paper with all authors adding contributions to the final version and Supplementary Text.

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Correspondence to Andrew V. Newman.

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Protti, M., González, V., Newman, A. et al. Nicoya earthquake rupture anticipated by geodetic measurement of the locked plate interface. Nature Geosci 7, 117–121 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2038

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