Forecasting of volcanic eruptions is still inadequate, despite technological advances in volcano monitoring. Improved forecasting requires a deeper understanding of when unrest will lead to an actual eruption. Shallow, long-period seismic events often precede volcanic eruptions and are used in forecasting. They are thought to be generated by resonance in fluid-filled cracks or conduits, indicating the presence of near-surface magmatic fluids. Here we analyse very-high-resolution seismic data from three active volcanoes—Mount Etna in Italy, Turrialba Volcano in Costa Rica and Ubinas Volcano in Peru—measured between 2004 and 2009. We find that seismic resonance is dependent on the wave propagation path and that the sources for the long-period seismic waves are composed of short pulses. We use a numerical model to show that slow-rupture failure in unconsolidated volcanic materials can reproduce all key aspects of these observations. Therefore, contrary to current interpretations, we suggest that short-duration long-period events are not direct indicators of fluid presence and migration, but rather are markers of deformation in the upper volcanic edifice. We suggest that long-period volcano seismicity forms part of the spectrum between slow-slip earthquakes and fast dynamic rupture, as has been observed in non-volcanic environments.
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Financial support from Science Foundation Ireland (SFI) and the European Commission, and computational support from the Irish Centre for High End Computing (ICHEC), are acknowledged. We are grateful to M. Mora, J. Pacheco, F. Martini and G. Soto (Costa Rica), O. Macedo and A. Inza (IGP-Peru). M. Möllhoff, D. Patanè (D.P.) and INGV staff (Italy) for field campaign support and D.P. for feedback on an early manuscript. D. Amitrano is gratefully acknowledged for application of his damage mechanics code and A. Braiden for assistance with drafting the manuscript. T. Eyre is thanked for Supplementary Fig. 1.
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Bean, C., De Barros, L., Lokmer, I. et al. Long-period seismicity in the shallow volcanic edifice formed from slow-rupture earthquakes. Nature Geosci 7, 71–75 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2027
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