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The proportionality between relative plate velocity and seismicity in subduction zones

Nature Geoscience volume 6, pages 780–784 (2013)Cite this article

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Abstract

Maximum earthquake magnitude and the rate of seismic activity apparently differ among subduction zones. This variation is attributed to factors such as subduction zone temperature and stress, and the type of material being subducted1,2,3,4,5. The relative velocity between the downgoing and overriding plates controls their tectonic deformation. It is also thought to correlate with seismicity1,2,6,7,8. Here I use the epidemic type aftershock sequence model9,10 to calculate the background seismicity rate—the frequency of seismic events above magnitude 4.5—for 117 sections of subduction zones worldwide, during the past century. I demonstrate a proportionality relationship whereby relative plate velocity correlates positively with seismicity rate. This relationship is prominent in the southwestern Pacific Ocean. However, although seismically active, this region has not experienced a magnitude 9 earthquake since 1900. In contrast, the Cascadia, Nankai, southern Chilean and Alaskan subduction zones exhibit low background seismicity rates, yet have experienced magnitude 9 earthquakes in the past century. Slow slip occurs in many of these regions, implying that slow deformation may aid nucleation of very large earthquakes. The proportionality relationship could be used to assess the seismic risk between two endmembers: active subduction zones that generate moderate earthquakes and quiet subduction zones that generate extremely large earthquakes.

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Figure 1: Locations of the 117 study regions with estimated background rates of seismicity and relative plate motions.
Figure 2: Summary of ETAS inversion analyses.
Figure 3: ETAS inversion analyses using a long-term catalogue in Japan.
Figure 4: Relationship between the velocity of relative plate motion and μ.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI (23244090) and MEXT KAKENHI (21107007). Figures were prepared using Generic Mapping Tool (Wessel and Smith, 1998).

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  1. Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of Tokyo, Hongo 7-3-1, Bunkyo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan

    Satoshi Ide

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Correspondence to Satoshi Ide.

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Ide, S. The proportionality between relative plate velocity and seismicity in subduction zones. Nature Geosci 6, 780–784 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1901

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