Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space

Nature Geoscience volume 4, pages758–761(2011)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Pronounced warming in the Arctic region, coined Arctic amplification, is an important feature of observed and modelled climate change1,2. Arctic amplification is generally attributed to the retreat of sea-ice3 and snow, and the associated surface-albedo feedback4, in conjunction with other processes5,6,7,8. In addition, the predominant thermal surface inversion in winter has been suggested to pose a negative feedback to Arctic warming by enhancing infrared radiative cooling9. Here we use the coupled climate model EC-Earth10 in idealized climate change experiments to quantify the individual contributions of the surface and the atmosphere to infrared radiative cooling. We find that the surface inversion in fact intensifies Arctic amplification, because the ability of the Arctic wintertime clear-sky atmosphere to cool to space decreases with inversion strength. Specifically, we find that the cold layers close to the surface in Arctic winter, where most of the warming takes place, hardly contribute to the infrared radiation that goes out to space. Instead, the additional radiation that is generated by the warming of these layers is directed downwards, and thus amplifies the warming. We conclude that the predominant Arctic wintertime temperature inversion damps infrared cooling of the system, and thus constitutes a positive warming feedback.

Access options

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

Rent or Buy

All prices are NET prices.

Figure 1: Arctic amplification of zonal mean surface air temperature change for a doubling of CO2.
Figure 2: Zonal mean winter (DJF) changes in clear-sky TOA infrared radiation for a doubling of CO2.
Figure 3: Zonal mean changes in wintertime (DJF) atmospheric cooling efficiency, inversion strength and vertical temperature profile for a doubling of CO2.
Figure 4: Change in DJF longwave all-sky longwave radiation components averaged over the Arctic region (70°–90° N) for a doubling of CO2.

References

  1. 1

    Holland, M. M. & Bitz, C. M. Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Clim. Dyn. 21, 221–232 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. 2

    Serreze, M. C., Barrett, A. P., Stroeve, J. C., Kindig, D. N. & Holland, M. M. The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. Cryosphere 3, 11–19 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. 3

    Screen, J. A. & Simmonds, I. The central role of diminshing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature 464, 1334–1337 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. 4

    Hall, A. The role of surface albedo feedback in climate. J. Clim. 17, 1550–1568 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. 5

    Winton, M. Surface albedo feedback estimates for the AR4 climate models. J. Clim. 19, 359–365 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. 6

    Lu, J. & Cai, M. Quantifying contributions to polar warming amplification in an idealized coupled general circulation model. Clim. Dyn. 34, 669–687 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. 7

    Graversen, R. G., Mauritsen, T., Tjernström, M., Källén, E. & Svensson, G. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature 541, 53–56 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. 8

    Graversen, R. G. & Wang, M. Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo. Clim. Dyn. 33, 629–643 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. 9

    Boé, J., Hall, A. & Qu, X. Current GCM’s unrealistic negative feedback in the Arctic. J. Clim. 22, 4682–4695 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. 10

    Hazeleger, W. et al. EC-Earth: A seamless Earth system prediction approach in action. Bull. Am. Meterol. Soc. 91, 1357–1363 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. 11

    Gillett, N. P. et al. Attribution of polar warming to human influence. Nature Geosci. 1, 750–754 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. 12

    Lu, J., Greatbatch, R. J. & Paterson, K. A. Trend in Northern Hemisphere winter atmospheric circulation during the last half of the twentieth century. J. Clim. 17, 3745–3760 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. 13

    Honda, M., Inoue, J. & Yamane, S. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L08707 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. 14

    Overland, J. E. & Wang, M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus 62, 1–9 (2009).

    Google Scholar 

  15. 15

    van den Broeke, M. R. et al. Partitioning recent Greenland Mass Loss. Science 326, 984–986 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. 16

    Graversen, et al. Greenland’s contribution to global sea level rise by the end of the 21st century. Clim. Dyn. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0918-8 (2010).

  17. 17

    Serreze, M. C. & Francis, J. A. The Arctic amplification debate. Clim. Change 76, 241–264 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. 18

    Solomon, S. (ed.) in Climate Change 2006: The Physical Science Basis 996 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

  19. 19

    Manabe, S. & Wetherald, R. T. The effect of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci. 32, 5529–5554 (1975).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  20. 20

    Alexeev, V. A., Langen, P. L. & Bates, J. R. Polar amplification of surface warming on an aquaplanet in ghost forcing experiments without sea ice feedbacks. Clim. Dyn. 24, 655–666 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. 21

    Deser, C., Tomas, R., Alexander, M. & Lawrence, D. The seasonal atmospheric response to projected arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J. Clim. 23, 333–351 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. 22

    Dmitrenko, I. et al. Towards a warmer Arctic Ocean: Spreading of the early 21st century Atlantic water warm anomaly along the Eurasian Basin margins. J. Geophys. Res. 113, C05023 (2008).

    Google Scholar 

  23. 23

    Spielhagen, R. F. et al. Enhanced modern heat transfer to the Arctic by warm Atlantic water. Science 331, 450–253 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. 24

    Bony, S. et al. How well do we understand and evaluate climate change feedback processes? J. Clim. 19, 3445–3482 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. 25

    Meehl, G. A. et al. Response of the NCAR climate system model to increased CO2 and the role of physical processes. J. Clim. 13, 1879–1898 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. 26

    King, J. C. Longwave atmospheric radiation over Antarctica. Ant. Sci. 8, 105–109 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  27. 27

    Lu, J. & Cai, M. Seasonality of polar surface warming amplification in climate simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L16704 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. 28

    Gregory, J. et al. A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L03205 (2004).

    Google Scholar 

  29. 29

    Viterbo, P., Beljaars, A. C. M., Mahouf, J-F. & Teixeira, J. The representation of soil moisture freezing and its impact on the stable boundary layer. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 125, 2401–2426 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to all members of the EC-Earth consortium for their help and support with the development of the EC-Earth climate model. R.G.G. is funded by the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management, The Netherlands, within the project Abrupt Climate Change, and by FORMAS, Sweden, through the ADSIMNOR project.

Author information

Author notes

  1. R. G. Graversen

    Present address: Present address: Meteorological Institute, Stockholm University (MISU), Stockholm 10691, Sweden,

  2. bintanja@knmi.nl

  3. bintanja@gmail.com

Affiliations

  1. Global Climate Division, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Wilhelminalaan 10, 3732 GK De Bilt, The Netherlands

    R. Bintanja, R. G. Graversen & W. Hazeleger

  2. Meteorology and Air Quality Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands

    W. Hazeleger

Authors
  1. R. Bintanja
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. R. G. Graversen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. W. Hazeleger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

R.B. and R.G.G. developed the ideas that lead to this paper. R.B. conducted the climate model experiments and analyses, and wrote the main paper and the Supplementary Information. All authors discussed the results and implications and commented on the manuscript at all stages.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to R. Bintanja.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 554 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Bintanja, R., Graversen, R. & Hazeleger, W. Arctic winter warming amplified by the thermal inversion and consequent low infrared cooling to space. Nature Geosci 4, 758–761 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1285

Download citation

Further reading

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing