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Convergent Cenozoic CO2 history

Nature Geoscience volume 4, pages 418–420 (2011)Cite this article

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Reconstructions of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 65 million years are heading towards consensus. It is time for systematic testing of the proxies, against measurements and against each other.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is clearly a primary driver of global temperature change1, but efforts to slow anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel burning and land use change are failing. Average increases in the rates of fossil fuel CO2 emissions more than tripled from 1% per year in the 1990s to 3.7% per year in the following decade2. The Earth's atmosphere is steadily heading towards a burden of greenhouse gases not seen for some 20 million years. This burden will lead to a warmer future both in our lifetime and for generations to come as the energy balance of the Earth system slowly comes into equilibrium with rising greenhouse gas concentrations. Our planet's climatic future can be estimated from an understanding of ancient climate change without recourse to computer models of Earth's climate system — but only if we have reliable information on past concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere3.

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Figure 1: Earth's Cenozoic atmospheric CO2 history by proxy.
Figure 2: Fossil materials recording Earth's past CO2 history.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, S10 2TN, UK

    David J. Beerling

  2. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and College of the Environment, Wesleyan University, Middletown, 06459, Connecticut, USA

    Dana L. Royer

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  1. David J. Beerling
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  2. Dana L. Royer
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Correspondence to David J. Beerling.

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Beerling, D., Royer, D. Convergent Cenozoic CO2 history. Nature Geosci 4, 418–420 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1186

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