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Climate science

Elusive extremes

Nature Geoscience volume 4, pages 142–143 (2011)Cite this article

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Extreme climate events can cause widespread damage and have been projected to become more frequent as the world warms. Yet as discussed at an interdisciplinary workshop, it is often not clear which extremes matter the most, and how and why they are changing.

Changes in the frequency, intensity and timing of climate extremes matter to ecosystems and society. Characterizing such changes and their impacts is a challenge, not only for climate scientists but also for statisticians, ecologists and medical scientists. The impacts of rare climate events can be difficult to detect, for example when they arrive with significant delay. To complicate matters further, combinations of extreme climate events — such as heatwaves coinciding with droughts or air quality problems — could cause more severe consequences for humans and ecosystems. At a conference in Cambridge on 'Extreme Environmental Events' in December 20101 that brought together climate scientists, statisticians and ecologists, the conclusion evolved that useful prediction of climate change impacts hinges on understanding the right types of extremes, and then producing reliable projections for their changes.

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Figure 1: Caused by the heatwave and drought period in summer 2003, deciduous trees suffered extraordinary leaf damage in large parts of central Europe.

CARL BEIERKUHNLEIN

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Gabriele C. Hegerl and Helen Hanlon are in the School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Grant Institute, Kings Buildings, W Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK,

    Gabriele C. Hegerl & Helen Hanlon

  2. Department of Biogeography, Carl Beierkuhnlein is in the School of Global Change Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitaetsstr. 30, D-95440 Bayreuth, Germany.,

    Carl Beierkuhnlein

Authors
  1. Gabriele C. Hegerl
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  2. Helen Hanlon
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  3. Carl Beierkuhnlein
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Correspondence to Gabriele C. Hegerl.

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Hegerl, G., Hanlon, H. & Beierkuhnlein, C. Elusive extremes. Nature Geosci 4, 142–143 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1090

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