Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Analysis
  • Published:

Empirically observed learning rates for concentrating solar power and their responses to regime change

Nature Energy volume 2, Article number: 17094 (2017) Cite this article

Subjects

An Author Correction to this article was published on 22 March 2019

Abstract

Concentrating solar power (CSP) capacity has expanded slower than other renewable technologies and its costs are still high. Until now, there have been too few CSP projects to derive robust conclusions about its cost development. Here we present an empirical study of the cost development of all operating CSP stations and those under construction, examining the roles of capacity growth, industry continuity, and policy support design. We identify distinct CSP expansion phases, each characterized by different cost pressure in the policy regime and different industry continuity. In 2008–2011, with low cost pressure and following industry discontinuity, costs increased. In the current phase, with high cost pressure and continuous industry development, costs decreased rapidly, with learning rates exceeding 20%. Data for projects under construction suggest that this trend is continuing and accelerating. If support policies and industrial structure are sustained, we see no near-term factors that would hinder further cost decreases.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Global expansion of CSP.
Figure 2: Investment cost development and fitted learning curves for different types of CSP.
Figure 3: Levelized cost of electricity for all CSP stations.
Figure 4: LCOE and remuneration of each individual CSP station with both data points available.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Trancik, J. Back the renewables boom. Nature 507, 300–302 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Lilliestam, J. & Hanger, S. Shades of green: centralisation, decentralisation and controversy among European renewable electricity visions. Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 17, 20–29 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Williges, K., Lilliestam, J. & Patt, A. Making concentrated solar power competitive with coal: the costs of a European feed-in tariff. Energy Policy 38, 3089–3097 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2014 (International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2015).

  5. Photovoltaics Report (Fraunhofer ISE, 2016).

  6. Rubin, E., Azevedo, I., Jaramillo, P. & Yeh, S. A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies. Energy Policy 86, 198–218 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Neij, L. Cost development of future technologies for power generation - A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments. Energy Policy 36, 2200–2211 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Viehbahn, P., Lechon, Y. & Trieb, F. The potential role of concentrated solar power (CSP) in Africa and Europe. Energy Policy 39, 4420–4430 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. The Power to Change: Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025 (International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), 2016).

  10. Mehos, M. et al. On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2016).

    Google Scholar 

  11. Trieb, F., O’Sullivan, M., Pregger, T., Schillings, C. & Krewitt, W. Characterisation of Solar Electricity Import Corridors from MENA to Europe (German Aerospace Centre (DLR), 2009).

    Google Scholar 

  12. Hinkley, J. et al. Concentrating Solar Power—Drivers and Opportunities for Cost-Competitive Electricity (CSIRO, 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  13. Feldman, D., Margolis, R., Denholm, P. & Stekli, J. Exploring the Potential Competitiveness of Utility-Scale Photovoltaics Plus Batteries with Concentrating Solar Power 2015–2030 (National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), 2016).

    Book  Google Scholar 

  14. Nemet, G. Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics. Energy Policy 34, 3218–3232 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Gallagher, K., Grübler, A., Kuhl, L., Nemet, G. & Wilson, C. The energy technology innovation system. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 37, 137–162 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Grübler, A., Nakicenovic, N. & Victor, D. Dynamics of energy technologies and global change. Energy Policy 27, 247–280 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Ferioli, F., Schoots, K. & van der Zwaan, B. Use and limitations of learning curves for energy technology policy: a component-learning hypothesis. Energy Policy 37, 2525–2535 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. del Río, P. The dynamic efficiency of feed-in tariffs: the impact of different design elements. Energy Policy 41, 139–151 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. Martinot, E., Wiser, R. & Hamrin, J. Renewable Energy Markets and Policies in the United States (Center for Resource Solutions, 2005).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Elefant, C. Reviving PURPA’s Purpose (Law offices of Carolyn Elefant, 2015).

    Google Scholar 

  21. Baharoon, D. A., Rahman, H. A., Omar, W. Z. W. & Fadhl, S. O. Historical development of concentrating solar power technologies to generate clean electricity efficiently—a review. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 41, 996–1027 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. Cohen, G., Mancini, T., Wilkins, T., Morse, F. & Kearney, D. The History of American CSP (CSP Today USA 2012, 2012).

    Google Scholar 

  23. de la Tour, A., Glachant, M. & Ménière, Y. Economic Analysis of the CSP Industry (CERNA, Mines ParisTech, 2010).

    Google Scholar 

  24. Martìn, H., de la Hoz, J., Velasco, G., Castilla, M. & Garcìa de Vicuña, J. L. Promotion of concentrating solar power (CSP) in Spain: performance analysis of the period 1998–2013. Renew. Sustain. Energy Rev. 50, 1052–1068 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Frisari, G. & Feás, J. The Role of Public Finance in CSP (Climate Policy Initiative, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  26. Lilliestam, J. et al. in Solar Power: Technologies, Environmental Impacts and Future Prospects (ed. Stephen, B. ) 23–56 (Nova, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  27. del Río, P., Peñasco, C., Mir-Artigues, P., Veum, K. & Jansen, J. Appropriate Policy Portfolios for still Maturing Renewable Electricity Technologies. The Cases of Concentrating Solar Power and Wind Offshore (Towards2030 project, 2016).

  28. Business Plan Financial Restructuring Proposal (Abengoa, 2016).

  29. Annual Report 2015 (Abengoa, 2016).

  30. Rioglass Solar has Signed an Agreement with Schott Solar CSP GmbH for the Acquisition of its Receiver Business (Rioglass, 2015); http://www.rioglass.com/?p=2576

  31. Abengoa Reduce su Participación el el Grupo Rioglass Solar al 15% (El Comercio, 2016); http://www.elcomercio.es/economia/empresas/201607/30/abengoa-reduce-participacion-grupo-20160730003244-v.html

  32. Solar Thermal and Concentrated Solar Power Barometer (Eurobserver, 2014).

  33. Solar Millennium AG Files for Opening of Insolvency Proceedings (Solar Millennium, 2011); http://www.solarmillennium.de/english/press/press-releases/2011-12-21-insolvency-filing.html

  34. Wesoff, E. The Sunset of Solel, Siemens and Solar Trough CSP Technology (Green Tech Media, 2013); https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/The-Sunset-of-Solel-Siemens-CSP-and-Solar-Trough-Technology

  35. China NDRC Formally Releases Official Notice on Benchmark Feed-in-Tariff Policy of CSP Industry (CSP Plaza, 2016); http://en.cspplaza.com/china-ndrc-formally-releases-official-notice-on-benchmark-feed-in-tariff-policy-of-csp-industry.html

  36. SolarReserve Eyes Chile CSP Wins as Surplus PV Disrupts Markets (CSP Today, 2016); http://social.csptoday.com/markets/solarreserve-eyes-chile-csp-wins-surplus-pv-disrupts-markets

  37. Concentrating Solar Power Projects by Country (NREL, 2016); http://www.nrel.gov/csp/solarpaces/by_country.cfm

  38. CSP World Map (CSP world, 2015); http://www.cspworld.org/cspworldmap

  39. CSP Today Global Tracker (CSP today, 2016); http://social.csptoday.com/tracker/projects

  40. Yearly Average Rates (US Forex, 2016); http://www.usforex.com/forex-tools/historical-rate-tools/yearly-average-rate

  41. GDP Deflator (Eurostat, 2016); http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&plugin=1&language=en&pcode=teina110

  42. Orden IET/1045/2014 (Boletín oficial del estado, 2014).

  43. Sikhonasa, Q. Global Review of CSP Technologies (Univ. Cape Town, 2011).

    Google Scholar 

  44. Solar Thermal Electricity Global Outlook 2016 (Greenpeace & ESTELA, 2016).

  45. Neij, L. et al. Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment (Lund University, 2003).

    Google Scholar 

  46. Technology Roadmap. Concentrating Solar Power (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2010).

  47. SunShot Vision Study (US Department of Energy (DOE), 2012).

  48. Schinko, T. & Komendantova, N. De-risking investment into concentrated solar power in North Africa: impacts on the costs of electricity generation. Renew. Energy 92, 262–272 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Labordena, M., Patt, A., Bazilian, M., Howells, M. & Lilliestam, J. Impact of political and economic barriers for concentrating solar power in sub-Saharan Africa. Energy Policy 102, 52–72 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Ondraczek, J., Komendantova, N. & Patt, A. WACC the dog: the effects of financing costs on the levelized cost of solar PV power. Renew. Energy 75, 888–898 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Funding for this work came from a European Research Council Consolidator Grant (grant number 313553).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Policy Research Group, Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 22, room CHN J71, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland

    Johan Lilliestam, Mercè Labordena, Anthony Patt & Stefan Pfenninger

Authors
  1. Johan Lilliestam
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Mercè Labordena
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Anthony Patt
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Stefan Pfenninger
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

J.L. designed the study and drafted the article; J.L. and M.L. gathered the data; J.L. and S.P. analysed the data; S.P. generated the figures; all authors worked with the final manuscript; A.P. supervised the grant.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Johan Lilliestam.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Notes 1–6, Supplementary Tables 1–2, Supplementary Figures 1–12 and Supplementary References. (PDF 829 kb)

Supplementary Data 1

Technical and economic data for all operational CSP stations and those currently (as of September 2016) under construction. n.k. = not known. This version of the data and future updated data are also available on www.csp.guru. (XLSX 39 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Lilliestam, J., Labordena, M., Patt, A. et al. Empirically observed learning rates for concentrating solar power and their responses to regime change. Nat Energy 2, 17094 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.94

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.94

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing