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The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

Nature Energy volume 2, Article number: 17140 (2017) Cite this article

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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30–50% of electricity in competitive markets.

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Figure 1: Growth in PV capacity and scenario projections.
Figure 2: Rapid decline in levelized cost of PV electricity.
Figure 3: Updating the integrated assessment model REMIND with recent price information.

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Acknowledgements

The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement no. 308329 (ADVANCE).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Torgauer Straβe 12–15, Berlin, 10829, Germany

    Felix Creutzig, Peter Agoston & Gregory Nemet

  2. Sustainability Economics of Human Settlements, Technische Universität Berlin, Str. des 17. Juni 135, Berlin, 10623, Germany

    Felix Creutzig

  3. Fraunhofer Institut für Solare Energiesysteme ISE, Heidenhofstraβe 2, Freiburg im Breisgau, 79110, Germany

    Jan Christoph Goldschmidt

  4. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, 14473, Germany

    Gunnar Luderer & Robert C. Pietzcker

  5. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin – Madison, 1225 Observatory Drive, Madison, 53706, Wisconsin, USA

    Gregory Nemet

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  1. Felix Creutzig
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Correspondence to Felix Creutzig.

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Supplementary Note 1

Detailed electricity sector modeling with high shares of PV and wind (PDF 232 kb)

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Creutzig, F., Agoston, P., Goldschmidt, J. et al. The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change. Nat Energy 2, 17140 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.140

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