Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition

Nature Energy volume 2, Article number: 17125 (2017) Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

The clean energy transition requires a co-evolution of innovation, investment, and deployment strategies for emerging energy storage technologies. A deeply decarbonized energy system research platform needs materials science advances in battery technology to overcome the intermittency challenges of wind and solar electricity. Simultaneously, policies designed to build market growth and innovation in battery storage may complement cost reductions across a suite of clean energy technologies. Further integration of R&D and deployment of new storage technologies paves a clear route toward cost-effective low-carbon electricity. Here we analyse deployment and innovation using a two-factor model that integrates the value of investment in materials innovation and technology deployment over time from an empirical dataset covering battery storage technology. Complementary advances in battery storage are of utmost importance to decarbonization alongside improvements in renewable electricity sources. We find and chart a viable path to dispatchable US$1 W−1 solar with US$100 kWh−1 battery storage that enables combinations of solar, wind, and storage to compete directly with fossil-based electricity options.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Learning rates using the traditional one-factor learning curve model for lithium-ion battery storage.
Figure 2: Comparing traditional one-factor models and the two-factor model to historical prices.
Figure 3: US-federal R&D spending from 1976–2016.
Figure 4: Global corporate and VC investment in the energy storage sector.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Schellnhuber, H. J., Rahmstof, R. & Winkelmann, R. Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 649–653 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Margolis, R. M. & Kammen, D. M. Underinvestment: the energy technology and R&D policy challenge. Science 285, 690–692 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Anadon, L., D.,Chan, G., Bin-Nun, A. Y. & Narayanamurti, V. The pressing energy innovation challenge of the US National Laboratories. Nat. Energy 1, 16117 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Trancik, J. E. et al. Technology Improvement and Emissions Reductions as Mutually Reinforcing Efforts: Observations from the Global Development of Solar and Wind Energy (MIT, 2015).

    Google Scholar 

  5. Mileva, A., Nelson, J. H., Johnston, J. & Kammen, D. M. SunShot solar power reduces costs and uncertainty in future low-carbon electricity systems. Environ. Sci. Technol. 47, 9053–9060 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Zheng, C. & Kammen, D. M. An innovation-focused roadmap for a sustainable global photovoltaic industry. Energy Policy 67, 159–169 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Obama, B. The irreversible momentum of clean energy. Science 355, 126–129 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Junginger, M., Faaij, A. & Turkenburg, W. C. Global experience curves for wind farms. Energy Policy 33, 133–150 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Rubin, E. S., Azevedo, I. M. L., Jaramillo, P. & Yeh, S. A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies. Energy Policy 86, 198–218 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Reiner, D. M. Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration projects. Nat. Energy 1, 15011 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Sagar, A. D. & van der Zwaan, B. Technological innovation in the energy sector: R&D, deployment, and learning-by-doing. Energy Policy 34, 2601–2608 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Schilling, M. A. & Esmundo, M. Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: analysis and implications for industry and government. Energy Policy 37, 1767–1781 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Duke, R. & Kammen, D. M. The economics of energy market transformation programs. Energy J. 20, 15–64 (1999).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Hoppmann, J., Peters, M., Schneider, M. & Hoffmann, V. The two faces of market support—How deployment policies affect technological exploration and exploitation in the solar photovoltaic industry. Res. Policy 42, 989–1003 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Nemet, G. Demand-pull, technology-push, and government-led incentives for non-incremental technical change. Res. Policy 38, 700–709 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Qiu, Y. & Anadon, L. D. The price of wind power in China during its expansion: technology adoption, learning-by-doing, economies of scale, and manufacturing localization. Energy Econ. 34, 772–785 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Hastie, T., Tibshirani, R. & Friedman, J. H. The Elements of Statistical Learning, Data mining, Inference, and Prediction 7th edn (Springer, 2009).

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Woodridge, J. M. Introductory Econometrics, A Modern Approach (Cengage Learning, 2016).

    Google Scholar 

  19. International Energy Agency Experience Curves for Energy Technology Policy (OECD Publishing, 2000).

  20. Kittner, N., Gheewala, S. H. & Kammen, D. M. Energy return on investment (EROI) of mini-hydro and solar PV systems designed for a mini-grid. Renew. Energy 99, 410–419 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, Mobilising Innovation to Accelerate Climate Action (International Energy Agency, 2015).

  22. Wang, P., Cockburn, L. M. & Puterman, M. L. Analysis of patent data—a mixed-Poisson-regression model approach. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 16, 27–41 (1998).

    Google Scholar 

  23. Nykvist, B. & Nilsson, M. Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 329–332 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Ciez, R. E. & Whitacre, J. F. The cost of lithium is unlikely to upend the price of Li-ion storage systems. J. Power Sources 320, 310–313 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. Grey, C. P. & Tarascon, J. M. Sustainability and in situ monitoring in battery development. Nat. Mater. 16, 45–56 (2017).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Hackmann, M., Psychny, H. & Stanek, R. Total Cost of Ownership Analyse fur Elektrofahrzeuge (Rabbit Publishing GmbH, 2015).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Hensley, R., Newman, J. & Rogers, M. Battery Technology Charges Ahead (McKinsey & Company, Inc., 2012); http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability-and-resource-productivity/our-insights/battery-technology-charges-ahead

    Google Scholar 

  28. Lindman, A. & Söderholm, P. Wind energy and green economy in Europe: measuring policy-induced innovation using patent data. Appl. Energy 179, 1351–1359 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Safei, H. & Keith, D. W. How much bulk energy storage is needed to decarbonize electricity? Energy Environ. Sci. 8, 3409–3417 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. De Sisternes, F. J., Jenkins, J. D. & Botterund, A. The value of energy storage in decarbonizing the electricity sector. Appl. Energy 175, 368–379 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Chang, J. et al. The Value of Distributed Electricity Storage in Texas: Proposed Policy for Enabling Grid-Integrated Storage Investments (The Brattle Group, 2014); http://www.brattle.com/system/news/pdfs/000/000/749/original/The_Value_of_Distributed_Electricity_Storage_in_Texas.pdf

    Google Scholar 

  32. Nemet, G. F. & Kammen, D. M. US energy research and development: declining investment, increasing need, and the feasibility of expansion. Energy Policy 35, 746–755 (2007).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Federal R&D as a Percent of GDP, 1976–2016 (AAAS, 2015); http://www.aaas.org/page/historical-trends-federal-rd

  34. R&D by Function: Non-Defense Only, 1953–2017 (AAAS, 2016); https://www.aaas.org/page/historical-trends-federal-rd

  35. Ghosh, S. & Nanda, R. Venture Capital Investment in the Clean Energy Sector Working Paper No. 11-020 (Harvard Business School Entrepreneurial Management, 2010).

  36. Kortum, S. & Lerner, J. Assessing the contribution of venture capital to innovation. RAND J. Econ. 31, 674–692 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Schock, F., Mutl, J., Taube, F. A. & von Flotow, P. Interdependencies Between Technology and Capacity Investments in the Solar Technology Sector (EBS Business School, 2014); https://ssrn.com/abstract=2501857 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2501857

  38. Hargadon, A. B. & Kenney, M. Misguided policy? Following venture capital into clean technology. Calif. Manage. Rev. 54, 118–139 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Kapoor, R. & Furr, N. R. Complementarities and competition: unpacking the drivers of entrants’ technology choices in the solar photovoltaic industry. Strateg. Manage. J. 36, 416–436 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  40. Jaffe, A. B., Newell, R. G. & Stavins, R. N. A tale of two market failures: technology and environmental policy. Technol. Change Environ. 54, 164–174 (2005).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Acs, Z. J., Anselin, L. & Varga, A. Patents and innovation counts as measures of regional production of new knowledge. Res. Policy 31, 1069–1085 (2002).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  42. Griliches, Z. R&D and productivity: measurement issues and econometric results. Science 237, 31–35 (1987).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  43. Nagy, B., Farmer, J. D., Bui, Q. M. & Trancik, J. E. Statistical basis for predicting technological progress. PLoS ONE 8, e52669 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Putnam, J. The Value of International Patent Rights (Yale University, 1997).

    Google Scholar 

  45. Hagerman, S., Jaramillo, P. & Morgan, M. G. Is rooftop solar PV at socket parity without subsidies? Energy Policy 89, 84–94 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. SunShot Vision Study (US Department of Energy, 2012).

  47. Lantz, E., Wiser, R. & Hand, M. The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy Report No. NREL/TP-6A20-53510 (NREL, 2012).

  48. Corporate & Venture Capital Activity: Energy Storage (Cleantech Group, accessed 6 February 2017, 2016); http://i3connect.com/tags/energy-storage/881/activity

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank the Karsten Family Foundation and the Zaffaroni Family Foundation for generous support. N.K. thanks the NSF-GRFP and Berkeley Center for Green Chemistry (NSF, Grant No. 1144885). F.L. thanks CDTM for ongoing continuous support.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA

    Noah Kittner & Daniel M. Kammen

  2. Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA

    Noah Kittner, Felix Lill & Daniel M. Kammen

  3. Center for Digital Technology and Management, TU Munich, Arcisstraße 21, 80333, Munich, Germany

    Felix Lill

  4. Goldman School of Public Policy, UC Berkeley, Berkeley, California, 94720, USA

    Daniel M. Kammen

Authors
  1. Noah Kittner
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Felix Lill
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Daniel M. Kammen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

N.K. conceived and N.K. and F.L. designed the study. N.K., F.L. and D.M.K. collected data. N.K. and F.L. analysed data and wrote the paper. F.L. ran the statistical test. D.M.K. supervised the research, guided the study, and edited the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Daniel M. Kammen.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figures 1–3, Supplementary Tables 1–22, Supplementary Notes 1–3 and Supplementary References. (PDF 578 kb)

Supplementary Data 1

Price, volume, and patent dataset. (XLSX 50 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Kittner, N., Lill, F. & Kammen, D. Energy storage deployment and innovation for the clean energy transition. Nat Energy 2, 17125 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.125

Download citation

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.125

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing