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Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations

Nature Energy volume 2, Article number: 17109 (2017) Cite this article

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Abstract

Previous modelling studies suggest that thermoelectric power generation is vulnerable to climate change, whereas studies based on historical data suggest the impact will be less severe. Here we explore the vulnerability of thermoelectric power generation in the United States to climate change by coupling an Earth system model with a thermoelectric power generation model, including state-level representation of environmental regulations on thermal effluents. We find that the impact of climate change is lower than in previous modelling estimates due to an inclusion of a spatially disaggregated representation of environmental regulations and provisional variances that temporarily relieve power plants from permit requirements. More specifically, our results indicate that climate change alone may reduce average generating capacity by 2–3% by the 2060s, while reductions of up to 12% are expected if environmental requirements are enforced without waivers for thermal variation. Our work highlights the significance of accounting for legal constructs and underscores the effects of provisional variances in addition to environmental requirements.

Two-thirds of total US electricity generation requires water for cooling, and two-fifths of the total US freshwater withdrawal is required for thermoelectric production1,2. Extreme weather events are the leading cause for disruptions to the electricity sector in the United States, and incidents of power plant shutdowns or curtailed operations due to extreme events (for example, water shortages) have become more frequent in recent years3,4. Growing demands for power and water, combined with increasing frequency of extremes due to climate change are likely to exacerbate the reliability of the US thermoelectric sector in the future5,6.

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Figure 1: EPA state water temperature standards criteria.
Figure 2: Projected average monthly usable capacity under the RCP4.5 scenario.
Figure 3: Average usable capacity reductions under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.

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Acknowledgements

The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830. We would also like to acknowledge EW3 Baseline Assessment Team for making UCS EW3 Energy-Water Database V.1.3 publicly available.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA

    Lu Liu & Barton Forman

  2. Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA

    Lu Liu & Mohamad Hejazi

  3. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington 99352, USA

    Mohamad Hejazi, Hongyi Li & Xiao Zhang

  4. Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA

    Mohamad Hejazi

  5. Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana 59717-3120, USA

    Hongyi Li

Authors
  1. Lu Liu
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  2. Mohamad Hejazi
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  4. Barton Forman
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  5. Xiao Zhang
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Contributions

L.L. and M.H. designed the study, L.L. performed all analyses and collaborated with H.L. and X.Z. in generating model input data. B.F. and M.H. worked on drafting and re-writing the manuscript. All authors contributed to the discussion of the results.

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Correspondence to Lu Liu.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figures 1–7, Supplementary Tables 1–4, Supplementary Methods, Supplementary Notes 1–3 and Supplementary References (PDF 1183 kb)

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Liu, L., Hejazi, M., Li, H. et al. Vulnerability of US thermoelectric power generation to climate change when incorporating state-level environmental regulations. Nat Energy 2, 17109 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.109

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