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Challenges faced by China compared with the US in developing wind power

Nature Energy volume 1, Article number: 16061 (2016) Cite this article

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Abstract

In the 21st Conference of the Parties held in Paris in December 2015, China pledged to peak its carbon emissions and increase non-fossil energy to 20% by 2030 or earlier. Expanding renewable capacity, especially wind power, is a central strategy to achieve these climate goals. Despite greater capacity for wind installation in China compared to the US (145.1 versus 75.0 GW), less wind electricity is generated in China (186.3 versus 190.9 TWh). Here, we quantify the relative importance of the key factors accounting for the unsatisfactory performance of Chinese wind farms. Different from the results in earlier qualitative studies, we find that the difference in wind resources explains only a small fraction of the present China−US difference in wind power output (−17.9% in 2012); the curtailment of wind power, differences in turbine quality, and delayed connection to the grid are identified as the three primary factors (respectively −49.3%, −50.2%, and −50.3% in 2012). Improvements in both technology choices and the policy environment are critical in addressing these challenges.

China and the US are the top two CO2 emitters in the world, together accounting for 45.6% of the global total1. Carbon mitigation efforts by these two countries are thus critical for curbing global climate change2,3. In the landmark US–China climate deal announced in November 2014, and the more recently concluded 21st Conference of the Parties at Paris (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/09/25/fact-sheet-united-states-and-china-issue-joint-presidential-statement), China pledged to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 or earlier, and to increase low-carbon energy to 20% in its total primary energy mix; the US committed to cut its carbon emissions by 26–28% relative to the 2005 level, following an earlier announced long-term target for 2050 to lower its emissions by 83% relative to 2005. Among all the low-carbon technology choices, wind power development is a central strategy for both countries to achieve their climate goals.

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Figure 1: A comparison of wind power deployment for China and the US from 2000 to 2015.
Figure 2: Contribution of different factors in explaining the China–US difference in wind power output.
Figure 3: Geographical distribution of capacity factors (CFs) evaluated for wind resources assuming deployment of a network of GE 2.5 MW turbines.
Figure 4: Average nameplate capacity for turbines installed in China and the US from 2000 to 2013.

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Acknowledgements

The research was supported by the State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, the Collaborative Innovation Centre for Regional Environmental Quality, MEP’s Special Funds for Research on Public Welfare (201409002), and the Volvo Group in a research project of the Research Center for Green Economy and Sustainable Development, Tsinghua University. It was also supported by the Harvard Climate Change Solutions Fund and the Harvard Global Institute.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Environment and State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing 10084, China

    Xi Lu

  2. Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

    Michael B. McElroy & Chris P. Nielsen

  3. Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA

    Michael B. McElroy

  4. Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey 08544, USA

    Wei Peng

  5. National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

    Shiyang Liu

  6. State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China

    Haikun Wang

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  1. Xi Lu
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  2. Michael B. McElroy
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  4. Shiyang Liu
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  5. Chris P. Nielsen
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Contributions

X.L. and M.B.M. conceived the idea for the paper. X.L. conducted the analysis. X.L. and S.L. collected the data. X.L., M.B.M. and W.P. co-wrote the paper. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.

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Correspondence to Xi Lu or Michael B. McElroy.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Supplementary Information

Supplementary Figures 1–8, Supplementary Tables 1 and 2, Supplementary Notes 1 and 2, Supplementary Methods, Supplementary References. (PDF 782 kb)

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Lu, X., McElroy, M., Peng, W. et al. Challenges faced by China compared with the US in developing wind power. Nat Energy 1, 16061 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.61

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