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Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation

Nature Energy volume 1, Article number: 16013 (2016) Cite this article

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Abstract

In the past three decades, government, industry and other stakeholders have repeatedly been swept up with the ‘fuel du jour’, claiming that a particular alternative fuel vehicle (AFV) technology can succeed in replacing conventional gasoline-powered vehicles. However, AFV technologies have experienced relatively little success, with fossil fuels still accounting for about 95% of global transport energy use. Here, using the US as a case study, we conduct a media analysis to show how society’s attention has skipped among AFV types between 1980 and 2013, including methanol, natural gas, plug-in electric, hybrid electric, hydrogen and biofuels. Although our results provide no indication as to whether hype ultimately has a net positive or negative impact on AFV innovation, we offer several recommendations that governments can follow to move past hype to support significant AFV adoption and displace fossil fuel use in the transportation sector.

The transport sector accounts for roughly one quarter of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions1. Although transport greenhouse gas emissions can be cut by improving the efficiency of conventional vehicles and reducing travel demand, deep decarbonization inevitably requires a substantial shift to alternative fuels such as electricity, hydrogen or biofuels. For example, the International Energy Agency suggests that to stabilize CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm, 40% of new vehicle sales globally must be plug-in electric by 2040, with most remaining vehicles fuelled by biofuels2. Another study finds that 90% of California’s vehicle travel must be powered by alternative fuels in 2050 to meet targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 80% (ref. 3).

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Figure 1: Graphical representation of emerging technology hype.
Figure 2: Media attention for all alternative fuel vehicle technologies for 1980–2013.
Figure 3: Hype and disappointment cycles for select AFV technologies.
Figure 4: Media attention for each alternative fuel vehicle technology for 1980–2013.
Figure 5: Positive and negative evaluations for each alternative fuel vehicle technology.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Navius Research Inc., Box 48300 Bentall, Vancouver, British Columbia V7X 1A1, Canada

    Noel Melton

  2. School of Resource and Environmental Management, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia V5A 1S6, Canada

    Noel Melton & Jonn Axsen

  3. Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, 1715 Tilia Street, Davis, California 95616, USA

    Daniel Sperling

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  1. Noel Melton
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Contributions

D.S. provided initial inspiration for this project. J.A. and N.M. developed the study design, and N.M. analysed the data. All authors contributed to writing the paper.

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Correspondence to Noel Melton.

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The authors declare no competing financial interests.

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Melton, N., Axsen, J. & Sperling, D. Moving beyond alternative fuel hype to decarbonize transportation. Nat Energy 1, 16013 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.13

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