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Cancer in the developing world: can we avoid the disaster?

Nature Clinical Practice Oncology volume 3, pages 582–583 (2006)Cite this article

Based on the most recently estimated rates of current cancer incidence and the projected demographics for the next half century, the 11 million cancer cases diagnosed in 2002 (double the number diagnosed two decades earlier) will reach roughly 17 million in 2020 and 27 million by 2050.1 These estimates assume no change in the risk pattern of cancer incidence. A yearly increase of 1% would add roughly another million cases per year.2 For many types of cancer, however, the expected increase in risk will be much higher than 1% annually, especially in low-income countries.3 Close to two-thirds of the cancer cases predicted for 2050 will occur in low-income countries, though only 20 years ago the proportion of cases was similar in the developed and the developing countries of the world. A much lower cure rate in low-income countries means that the difference in mortality will be even more pronounced. In fact, it has been predicted that by 2020 almost two-thirds of the deaths from cancer will occur in developing countries, and this proportion could reach three-quarters well before 2050.1,2

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. the President of the International Union Against Cancer (UICC), Geneva, Switzerland

    Franco Cavalli

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  1. Franco Cavalli
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The author declares no competing financial interests.

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International Union Against Cancer, 62 Route de Frontenex, CH-1207 Geneva, Switzerland iosidirezione@iosi.ch

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Cavalli, F. Cancer in the developing world: can we avoid the disaster?. Nat Rev Clin Oncol 3, 582–583 (2006). https://doi.org/10.1038/ncponc0611

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