Figure 1 : Key parameters and their variants combined within BioBaM and values for the year 2000.

From: Exploring the biophysical option space for feeding the world without deforestation

Figure 1

(a) Cropland expansion variants (million km2), from no-expansion (+0%) to full expansion into highly productive grazing land2 (+70%). The +11% variant is in line with FAO forecasts14. (b) Boxplots of the region- and cultivar-specific crop yields in each variant (t dm ha−1 yr−1), from extensive low organic yield to intensive-farming, high-yield variants. Coloured boxes indicate the two inner quartiles (>25 and <75) per world region; whiskers indicate the minimum and maximum values. (c) Variants of livestock feedstuff composition based on feed-conversion ratios (kg input (dm) per kg output (dm)). (d) Variant of human diets, quantity and composition (kcal per cap per day). VEGAN denotes a diet without livestock products; VEGETARIAN denotes a diet without meat but with eggs, and milk. These two and MEAT, a diet with a considerable fraction of livestock meat, are literature derived67 and represent recommendations based on health considerations. The BAU scenario is in line with the FAO forecast for 2050 (ref. 14), whereas the RICH scenario assumes the diet of North America in 2000 to prevail globally in 2050. All variants except 2000 and BAU assume a global convergence of per capita diets. (e) Variants of the origin of meat in human diet variants expressed as monogastric share in total animal calories. The bar for the BAU variant refers to the range of all diet variants with the exception of VEGAN. The combination of all variants results in 500 individual scenarios. (Note that the VEGAN diet variant does not include variants of livestock system parameters (c,e)). Values for 2000 from (refs 57, 66).