Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation

Nature Climate Change volume 7, pages 220–226 (2017)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Forest-based climate mitigation may occur through conserving and enhancing the carbon sink and through reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Yet the inclusion of forests in international climate agreements has been complex, often considered a secondary mitigation option. In the context of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries submitted their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDCs), including climate mitigation targets. Assuming full implementation of (I)NDCs, we show that land use, and forests in particular, emerge as a key component of the Paris Agreement: turning globally from a net anthropogenic source during 1990–2010 (1.3 ± 1.1 GtCO2e yr−1) to a net sink of carbon by 2030 (up to −1.1 ± 0.5 GtCO2e yr−1), and providing a quarter of emission reductions planned by countries. Realizing and tracking this mitigation potential requires more transparency in countries’ pledges and enhanced science-policy cooperation to increase confidence in numbers, including reconciling the ≍3 GtCO2e yr−1 difference in estimates between country reports and scientific studies.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Relevant articles

Open Access articles citing this article.

Access options

Rent or buy this article

Prices vary by article type

from$1.95

to$39.95

Learn more

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Global LULUCF net GHG flux for the historical period and future scenarios based on analyses of countries’ documents and mitigation pledges ((I)NDCs).
Figure 2: Comparison of historical LULUCF net GHG flux from this analysis and other key global LULUCF data sets.
Figure 3: Comparison of historical and projected land fluxes from this analysis (based on country reports, including conditional (I)NDCs) and IPCC AR5 (based on global models and the projections of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios).
Figure 4: Contribution of mitigation in the LULUCF sector to total GHG mitigation across all sectors according to countries’ (I)NDCs.

References

  1. Adoption of the Paris Agreement Report No. FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf

  2. Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) Version 4.3.1 (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), 2016); http://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/overview.php?v=431

  3. INDCs as Communicated by Parties (UNFCCC, 2015); http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx

  4. Paris Agreement - Status of Ratification (UNFCCC, 2016); http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php

  5. Ciais, P. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 6, 465–522 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  6. Smith, P. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 11, 811–886 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  7. Tubiello, F. N. et al. The Contribution of Agriculture, Forestry and other Land Use activities to Global Warming, 1990–2012. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 2655–2660 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Federici, S., Tubiello, F. N., Salvatore, M., Jacobs, H. & Schmidhuber, J. New estimates of CO2 forest emissions and removals: 1990–2015. Forest Ecol. Manage. 352, 89–98 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Le Quéré, C. et al. Global carbon budget 2015. Earth Syst. Sci. Data 7, 349–396 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Pan, Y. et al. A large and persistent carbon sink in the world’s forests. Science 333, 988–993 (2011).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  11. Schlamadinger, B. et al. Options for including land use in a climate agreement post-2012: improving the Kyoto Protocol approach. Environ. Sci. Policy 10, 295–305 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Decision 2/CP.17. Outcome of the Work of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention FCCC/CP/2011/9/Add.1 (UNFCCC, 2011); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/cop17/eng/09a01.pdf

  13. Greenhouse Gas Inventories (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/national_reports/annex_i_ghg_inventories/national_inventories_submissions/items/8812.php

  14. Grassi, G., den Elzen, M. G. J., Hof, A. F., Pilli, R. & Federici, S. The role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges. Climatic Change 115, 873–881 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. National Communications Non-Annex 1 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/nationalreports/non-annexinatcom/submittednatcom/items/653.php

  16. Biennial Update Reports (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/national_reports/non-annex_i_natcom/reporting_on_climate_change/items/8722.php

  17. CAIT Climate Data Explorer: Paris Contributions Map (World Resources Institute, 2015); http://cait.wri.org/indc

  18. Admiraal, A. et al. Assessing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Climate Agreement—What are the Projected Global and National Emission Levels for 2025–2030? Report No. PBL 1879 (PBL, 2015); http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/assessing-intended-nationally-determined-contributions-to-the-paris-climate-agreement

  19. Rogelj, J. et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 534, 631–639 (2016).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  20. National Communications Annex 1 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/nationalreports/annexinatcom/submittednatcom/items/7742.php

  21. Compilation of Information on Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions to be Implemented by Parties Not Included in Annex I to the Convention FCCC/AWGLCA/2011/INF.1 (UNFCCC, 2011); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2011/awglca14/eng/inf01.pdf

  22. Country Reports (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, 2015); http://www.fao.org/forest-resources-assessment/current-assessment/country-reports/en

  23. Land Use Emissions (Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), 2015); http://faostat3.fao.org/download/G2/*/E

  24. Grassi, G., Monni, S., Federici, S., Achard, F. & Mollicone, D. Applying the conservativeness principle to REDD to deal with the uncertainties of the estimates. Environ. Res. Lett. 3, 035005 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  25. IPCC 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (eds Eggleston, H. S. et al.) (National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2006).

  26. IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (eds Penman, J. et al.) (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, 2003).

  27. Houghton, R. A. et al. Carbon emissions from land use and land-cover change. Biogeosciences 9, 5125–5142 (2012).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  28. Hansis, E., Davis, S. J. & Pongratz, J. Relevance of methodological choices for accounting of land use change carbon fluxes. Glob. Biogeochem. Cycles 29, 1230–1246 (2015).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  29. Pongratz, J., Reick, C. H., Houghton, R. A. & House, J. I. Terminology as a key uncertainty in net land use and land cover change carbon flux estimates. Earth System Dynam. 5, 177–195 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  30. Federici, S. et al. GHG Fluxes from Forests: An Assessment of National Reporting and Independent Science in the Context of the Paris Agreement (Climate and Land Use Alliance, 2016); http://www.climateandlandusealliance.org/reports/ghg-fluxes-from-forests

  31. IPCC IPCC Meeting on Current Scientific Understanding of the Processes Affecting Terrestrial Carbon Stocks and Human Influences on Them (eds Schimel, D. & Manning, M.) (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, 2003).

  32. IPCC Revisiting the Use of Managed Land as a Proxy for Estimating National Anthropogenic Emissions and Removals (eds Eggleston, S., Srivastava, N., Tanabe, K. & Baasansuren, J.) (IGES, 2010).

  33. Erb, K. H. et al. Bias in the attribution of forest carbon sinks. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 854–856 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  34. Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions FCCC/CP/2015/7 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/07.pdf

  35. The Emissions Gap Report 2015 (United Nations Environment Programme, 2015); http://uneplive.unep.org/media/docs/theme/13/EGR_2015_301115_lores.pdf

  36. Lapola, D. M. et al. Pervasive transition of the Brazilian land-use system. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 27–35 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Forsell, N. et al. Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections. Carbon Balance Manage. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0068-3 (2016).

  38. Houghton, R. A., Byers, B. & Nassikas, A. A. A role for tropical forests in stabilizing atmospheric CO2 . Nat. Clim. Change 5, 1022–1023 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  39. Mackey, B. et al. Untangling the confusion around land carbon science and climate change mitigation policy. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 552–557 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  40. Clarke, L. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) Ch. 6, 413–510 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).

    Google Scholar 

  41. Tollefson, J. Paris climate deal hinges on better carbon accountancy. Nature 529, 450 (2016).

    Google Scholar 

  42. Guidelines for the Preparation of National Communications from Parties Not Included in Annex I to the Convention Bonn, Decision 17/CP.8 (UNFCCC, 2003); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/cop8/07a02.pdf

  43. A Sourcebook of Methods and Procedures for Monitoring and Reporting Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Associated with Deforestation, Gains and Losses of Carbon Stocks in Forests Remaining Forests, and Forestation GOFC-GOLD Report version COP21-1 (GOFC-GOLD, 2015); http://www.gofcgold.wur.nl/redd

  44. Integrating Remote-Sensing and Ground-Based Observations for Estimation of Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gases in Forests: Methods and Guidance from the Global Forest Observations Initiative (Global Forest Observations Initiative, 2014)

  45. Hansen, M. C. et al. High-resolution global maps of 21st-century forest cover change. Science 342, 850–853 (2013).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  46. Achard, F. & House, J. I. Reporting carbon losses from tropical deforestation with Pan-tropical biomass maps. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 101002 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  47. Global Forest Watch (2016); http://www.globalforestwatch.org

  48. Pilli, R., Grassi, G., Kurz, W. A., Abad Viñas, R. & Guerrero, N. Modelling forest carbon stock changes as affected by harvest and natural disturbances. I. Comparison with countries’ estimates for forest management. Carbon Balance Manage. http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s13021-016-0059-4 (2016).

  49. Roman-Cuesta, R. M. et al. Multi-gas and multi-source comparisons of six land use emission datasets and AFOLU estimates in the Fifth Assessment Report, for the tropics for 2000–2005. Biogeosciences 13, 5799–5819 (2016).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Friedlingstein, P. et al. Update on CO2 emissions. Nat. Geosci. 3, 811–812 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  51. IPCC Summary for Policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. SPM, 1–29 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

Download references

Acknowledgements

Author Jim Penman passed away recently. Jim Penman was the UK and EU negotiator on LULUCF for many years, coordinator of key IPCC methodological reports and credited as one of the key architects of the LULUCF process under the UNFCCC. He was awarded an OBE (Order of the British Empire) for his work. He was an outstanding scientist and negotiator, who strived always towards a better world.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Jim Penman: Deceased.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, 21027 Ispra (VA), Italy

    Giacomo Grassi & Frank Dentener

  2. Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK

    Jo House

  3. FAO consultant, 00153 Rome, Italy

    Sandro Federici

  4. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, PO Box 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, The Netherlands

    Michel den Elzen

  5. University College London, London NW1 2PS, UK

    Jim Penman

Authors
  1. Giacomo Grassi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Jo House
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Frank Dentener
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Sandro Federici
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Michel den Elzen
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Jim Penman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

G.G. conceived the analysis on (I)NDCs, executed the calculations and drafted the paper. J.H., F.D., M.d.E. and J.P. contributed to the analysis and to the writing of the paper. S.F. provided data from FAO FRA 2015 and contributed to the analysis. J.H. was supported by the Leverhulme Foundation and EU FP7 through project LUC4C (GA603542).

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Giacomo Grassi.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information (PDF 695 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and Permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Grassi, G., House, J., Dentener, F. et al. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nature Clim Change 7, 220–226 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3227

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3227

This article is cited by

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing