Projection and prediction

Climate sensitivity on the rise

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Recent observations of Earth's energy budget indicate low climate sensitivity. Research now shows that these estimates should be revised upward, resolving an apparent mismatch with climate models and implying a warmer future.

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Figure 1: Probability distribution of climate response to forcings.

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Correspondence to Kyle C. Armour.

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Armour, K. Climate sensitivity on the rise. Nature Clim Change 6, 896–897 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3079

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