Commentary

El Niño and a record CO2 rise

The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.

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Acknowledgements

We thank C. MacLachlan for performing the GloSea5 simulations, N. Rayner for providing the HadSST data, and S. Ineson and A. Scaife for comments. R.A.B received support from the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (EU/FP7) under Grant Agreement 603864 (HELIX). The work of R.A.B., C.D.J., J.R.K. and J.J.K. forms part of the DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101. R.F.K. was supported by the US Department of Energy under award DE-SC0012167 and by Schmidt Philanthropies.

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Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK

    • Richard A. Betts
    • , Chris D. Jones
    • , Jeff R. Knight
    •  & John J. Kennedy
  2. University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Science, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter EX4 4PS, UK

    • Richard A. Betts
  3. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego 0244, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, California 92093-0244, USA

    • Ralph F. Keeling

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Correspondence to Richard A. Betts.

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