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El Niño and a record CO2 rise

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 806–810 (2016)Cite this article

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The recent El Niño event has elevated the rise in CO2 concentration this year. Here, using emissions, sea surface temperature data and a climate model, we forecast that the CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa will for the first time remain above 400 ppm all year, and hence for our lifetimes.

The long-term rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration, approximately 2.1 ppm yr−1 over the past decade, is caused by anthropogenic emissions arising from fossil fuel burning, deforestation and cement production1,2. The annual growth rate, however, varies considerably as a result of climate variability affecting the relative strength of land and ocean carbon sources and sinks. The annual growth rate measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii3,4 is correlated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rapid growth associated with El Niño events5,6,7,8,9 through drying of tropical land regions and forest fires. To test the predictive value of this relationship, we present a forecast, made in October 2015, of the CO2 concentrations throughout 2016 based on the relationship, and verify against observations available so far. We predict the monthly mean CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to remain above 400 ppm even in its annual minimum in September, which would not have been expected without the 2015–2016 El Niño.

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Figure 1: Identifying, testing and forecasting the relationship between Niño 3.4 SST anomalies and Mauna Loa CO2 growth rates.
Figure 2: CO2 growth rate (minus anthropogenic emissions component) versus Niño 3.4 anomaly9.
Figure 3: Observed and forecast CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa.

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Acknowledgements

We thank C. MacLachlan for performing the GloSea5 simulations, N. Rayner for providing the HadSST data, and S. Ineson and A. Scaife for comments. R.A.B received support from the European Commission's 7th Framework Programme (EU/FP7) under Grant Agreement 603864 (HELIX). The work of R.A.B., C.D.J., J.R.K. and J.J.K. forms part of the DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme GA01101. R.F.K. was supported by the US Department of Energy under award DE-SC0012167 and by Schmidt Philanthropies.

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Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK

    Richard A. Betts, Chris D. Jones, Jeff R. Knight & John J. Kennedy

  2. University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Science, Hatherly Laboratories, Prince of Wales Road, Exeter, EX4 4PS, UK

    Richard A. Betts

  3. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego 0244, 9500 Gilman Drive, La Jolla, 92093-0244, California, USA

    Ralph F. Keeling

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  1. Richard A. Betts
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  2. Chris D. Jones
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  3. Jeff R. Knight
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  4. Ralph F. Keeling
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  5. John J. Kennedy
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Correspondence to Richard A. Betts.

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Betts, R., Jones, C., Knight, J. et al. El Niño and a record CO2 rise. Nature Clim Change 6, 806–810 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3063

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