In the aftermath of COP21, potential post-2030 emission trajectories and their consistency with the 2 °C target are a core concern for the ocean scientific community in light of the end-century risks of impact scenarios.
Access options
Subscribe to Journal
Get full journal access for 1 year
$209.00
only $17.42 per issue
All prices are NET prices.
VAT will be added later in the checkout.
Rent or Buy article
Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.
from$8.99
All prices are NET prices.

References
- 1
Pörtner, H.-O. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects (eds Field, C. B. et al.) Ch. 6 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- 2
Hoegh-Guldberg, O. et al. in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects (eds Field, C. B. et al.) Ch. 30 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- 3
Gattuso, J.-P. et al. Science 349, 6243 (2015).
- 4
Nagelkerken, I. & Connell, S. D. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, 13272–13277 (2015).
- 5
Beaugrand, G., Edwards, M., Raybaud, V., Goberville, E. & Kirby, R. R. Nature Clim. Change 5, 695–701 (2015).
- 6
Magnan, A. K. et al. Intertwined Ocean and Climate: Implication for International Climate Negotiations Policy Brief No. 4/15 (IDDRI, 2015).
- 7
Mathiesen, K. & Harvey, H. Climate coalition breaks cover in Paris to push for binding and ambitious deal. The Guardian (8 December 2015); http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/08/coalition-paris-push-for-binding-ambitious-climate-change-deal
- 8
Adoption of The Paris Agreement FCCC/CP/2015/L.9/Rev.1 (UNFCCC, 2015); http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09r01.pdf
- 9
DeConto, R. M. & Pollard, D. Nature 531, 591–597 (2016).
- 10
Climate Action Tracker: INDCs lower projected warming to 2.7°C: significant progress but still above 2 °C. Climate Action Tracker (1 October 2015); https://newclimate.org/2015/10/01/climate-action-tracker-indcs-lower-projected-warming-to-2-7c-significant-progress-but-still-above-2c/
- 11
Fawcett, A. A. et al. Science 350, 6265 (2015).
- 12
Albright, R. et al. Nature 531, 362–365 (2016).
- 13
Stocker, T. F. Science 350, 6262 (2015).
- 14
Steinacher, M. & Joos, F. Biogeosciences 13, 1071–1103 (2016).
- 15
IPCC Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
- 16
Iyer, G. C. et al. Environ. Res. Lett. 10, 125002 (2015).
- 17
Fay, M. et al. Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future (World Bank, 2015).
- 18
Riebesell, U. & Gattuso, J.-P. Nature Clim. Change 5, 12–14 (2015).
- 19
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project Pathways to Deep Decarbonization 2015 Report (SDSN & IDDRI, 2015); http://deepdecarbonization.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/DDPP_2015_REPORT.pdf
- 20
Spencer, T. et al. Beyond the Numbers. Understanding the Transformation Induced by INDCs: A Report of the MILES Project Consortium Study No. 5/15 (IDDRI, 2015).
- 21
Smith, P. et al. Nature Clim. Change 6, 42–50 (2016).
- 22
Peters, G. P. Nature Clim. Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3000 (2016).
Acknowledgements
This is a product of The Oceans 2015 Initiative, an expert group supported by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, the Ocean Acidification International Coordination Centre of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the BNP Paribas Foundation and the Monégasque Association for Ocean Acidification.The authors also benefited from financial support from the Children's Investment Fund Foundation (CIFF), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), German Environment Ministry, Gross Family Foundation, European Climate Foundation (ECF), Agence de l'Environnement et de la Maîtrise de l'Énergie (ADEME), Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN), European Union DG CLIMA (21.0104/2014/684427/SER/CLIMA.A.4) and the French Government (ANR-10-LABX-01). A.K.M. acknowledges support from the French National Research Agency (CapAdapt Project ANR-2011-JSH1-004 01 and ANR-15-CE03-0003). R.B. is supported by the RESCCUE project funded by the French Development Agency and the French Global Environment Facility (AFD CZZ 1647 01 F and FFEM CZZ 1667 01 H). F.J. acknowledges support from the Swiss National Science Foundation.The contents of this piece are solely the opinions of the authors and do not constitute a statement of policy, decision or position on behalf of the French Government, the Pacific Community or any funding partners.The authors also thank W. Cramer and P. Barthélemy for their comments on an earlier version.
Author information
Affiliations
Contributions
A.K.M., J.-P.G., M.C. and R.B. designed the research. A.K.M., J.-P.G. and F.J. put Fig. 1 and Table 1 together, and A.K.M., J.-P.G., O.H.-G., F.J. and H.-O.P. analysed ocean-related data and drew up the conclusions from Fig. 1 and Table 1. M.C., H.W. and T.S. analysed INDC-related material. All authors contributed to drafting and revising the manuscript as well as to the Supplementary Information.
Corresponding author
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information (PDF 573 kb)
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Magnan, A., Colombier, M., Billé, R. et al. Implications of the Paris agreement for the ocean. Nature Clim Change 6, 732–735 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3038
Published:
Issue Date:
Further reading
-
Is deoxygenation detectable before warming in the thermocline?
Biogeosciences (2020)
-
The Influence of pCO2-Driven Ocean Acidification on Open Ocean Bacterial Communities during A Short-Term Microcosm Experiment in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) off Northern Chile
Microorganisms (2020)
-
Adjusting Tropical Marine Water Quality Guideline Values for Elevated Ocean Temperatures
Environmental Science & Technology (2020)
-
Parental acclimation to future ocean conditions increases development rates but decreases survival in sea urchin larvae
Marine Biology (2020)
-
Resilience to exogenous shocks in environmental management regimes in the Arctic – lessons learned from survivors
The Polar Journal (2019)