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Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 649–653 (2016)Cite this article

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A Correction to this article was published on 25 August 2016

This article has been updated

The Paris Agreement duly reflects the latest scientific understanding of systemic global warming risks. Limiting the anthropogenic temperature anomaly to 1.5–2 °C is possible, yet requires transformational change across the board of modernity.

Last December, after some 20 years of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), a historic, binding climate agreement was reached in Paris. At the twenty-first Conference of the Parties (COP21), 195 nations committed1 to “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. This establishes nothing less than a centennial benchmark for the human enterprise. In view of the monumental implications of that benchmark, it is imperative to review the adequacy of the Paris target.

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Figure 1: Tipping elements in context of the global mean temperature evolution.
Figure 2: Likelihood of exceeding the 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming limits.
Figure 3: Beginning of induced implosion? The installed capacity of solar and wind power generation has grown at rates far exceeding expectations.

Change history

  • 13 July 2016

    In the Commentary "Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris" (Nature Clim. Change 6, 649–653; 2016), in the first paragraph of the 'Feasibility' section, 'ref. 38, Table 2.2' should have read 'ref. 37, Table 2.2'. Corrected in the online versions after print: 13 July 2016.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Ottmar Edenhofer, Katja Frieler, Robert Gieseke, Jonathan Koomey and Gunnar Luderer for their helpful comments and valuable hints.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf and Ricarda Winkelmann are at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany,

    Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf & Ricarda Winkelmann

  2. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber is also at the Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA,

    Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

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Correspondence to Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Stefan Rahmstorf or Ricarda Winkelmann.

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Schellnhuber, H., Rahmstorf, S. & Winkelmann, R. Why the right climate target was agreed in Paris. Nature Clim Change 6, 649–653 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3013

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