Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Article
  • Published:

Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans

Abstract

Adaptation planning offers a promising approach for identifying and devising solutions to address local climate change impacts. Yet there is little empirical understanding of the content and quality of these plans. We use content analysis to evaluate 44 local adaptation plans in the United States and multivariate regression to examine how plan quality varies across communities. We find that plans draw on multiple data sources to analyse future climate impacts and include a breadth of strategies. Most plans, however, fail to prioritize impacts and strategies or provide detailed implementation processes, raising concerns about whether adaptation plans will translate into on-the-ground reductions in vulnerability. Our analysis also finds that plans authored by the planning department and those that engaged elected officials in the planning process were of higher quality. The results provide important insights for practitioners, policymakers and scientists wanting to improve local climate adaptation planning and action.

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: Communities with stand-alone climate change adaptation plans that comprised our sample.
Figure 2: Variation in plan quality principles.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. IPCC Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C. B. et al.) 582 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012).

  2. Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 °C Warmer World Must be Avoided (World Bank, 2012).

  3. Bierbaum, R. et al. A comprehensive review of climate adaptation in the United States: more than before, but less than needed. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 18, 361–406 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  4. Füssel, H.-M. Adaptation planning for climate change: concepts, assessment approaches, and key lessons. Sustain. Sci. 2, 265–275 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Preston, B. L., Westaway, R. M. & Yuen, E. J. Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations. Mitig. Adapt. Strateg. Glob. Change 16, 407–438 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Wheeler, S. M. State and municipal climate change plans. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 74, 481–496 (2008).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Berke, P. & Godschalk, D. Searching for the good plan: a meta-analysis of plan quality studies. J. Plan. Lit. 23, 227–240 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  8. Lyles, W. & Stevens, M. Plan quality evaluation 1994–2012: growth and contributions, limitations, and new directions. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 34, 433–450 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Lyles, W., Berke, P. & Smith, G. A comparison of local hazard mitigation plan quality in six states, USA. Landscape Urban Plan. 122, 89–99 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  10. Hoch, C. How plan mandates work: affordable housing in Illinois. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 73, 86–99 (2007).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Schrock, G., Bassett, E. M. & Green, J. Pursuing equity and justice in a changing climate: assessing equity in local climate and sustainability plans in U.S. cities. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 35, 282–295 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  12. Berke, P. R. & Conroy, M. M. Are we planning for sustainable development? J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 66, 21–33 (2000).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  13. Stevens, M. R., Lyles, W. & Berke, P. R. Measuring and reporting intercoder reliability in plan quality evaluation research. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 34, 77–93 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. Baker, I., Peterson, A., Brown, G. & McAlpine, C. Local government response to the impacts of climate change: an evaluation of local climate adaptation plans. Landscape Urban Plan. 107, 127–136 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Engle, N. L. Adaptive capacity and its assessment. Glob. Environ. Change 21, 647–656 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. Measham, T. G. et al. Adapting to climate change through local municipal planning: barriers and challenges. Mitig. Adapt. Strat. Glob. Change 16, 889–909 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Millard-Ball, A. The limits to planning: causal impacts of city climate action plans. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 33, 5–19 (2012).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  18. Moser, S. C. & Ekstrom, J. A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 22026–22031 (2010).

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Burton, I. in The Earthscan Reader on Adaptation to Climate Change (eds Schipper, E. L. F. & Burton, I.) 89–95 (Earthscan, 2009).

    Google Scholar 

  20. Stevens, M. R. Evaluating the quality of official community plans in southern British Columbia. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 33, 471–490 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Berkhout, F. et al. Framing climate uncertainty: socio-economic and climate scenarios in vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Reg. Environ. Change 14, 879–893 (2014).

    Google Scholar 

  22. Abbott, J. Understanding and managing the unknown: the nature of uncertainty in planning. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 24, 237–251 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  23. Walker, W. E., Haasnoot, M. & Kwakkel, J. H. Adapt or perish: a review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty. Sustainability 5, 955–979 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  24. Abunnasr, Y., Hamin, E. M. & Brabec, E. Windows of opportunity: addressing climate uncertainty through adaptation plan implementation. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 58, 1–21 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  25. Quay, R. Anticipatory governance. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 76, 496–511 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Berke, P., Godschalk, D. R., Kaiser, E. J. & Rodriguez, D. Urban Land Use Planning 5th edn (Univ. Illinois Press, 2006).

    Google Scholar 

  27. Lyles, L. W., Berke, P. & Smith, G. Do planners matter? Examining factors driving incorporation of land use approaches into hazard mitigation plans. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 57, 792–811 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  28. Anguelovski, I. & Carmin, J. Something borrowed, everything new: innovation and institutionalization in urban climate governance. Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain. 3, 169–175 (2011).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  29. Laurian, L. et al. What drives plan implementation? plans, planning agencies and developers. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 47, 555–577 (2004).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  30. Adger, W. N., Arnell, N. W. & Tompkins, E. L. Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 77–86 (2005).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Ford, J. D., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowski, A., Barrera, M. & Heymann, S. J. How to track adaptation to climate change: a typology of approaches for national-level application. Ecol. Soc. 18, 40 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  32. Berke, P. & Lyles, W. Public risks and the challenges to climate-change adaptation: a proposed framework for planning in the age of uncertainty. J. Policy Dev. Res. 15, 189–216 (2013).

    Google Scholar 

  33. Bedsworth, L. W. & Hanak, E. Climate policy at the local level: insights from California. Glob. Environ. Change 23, 664–677 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Brody, S. D. Are we learning to make better plans? a longitudinal analysis of plan quality associated with natural hazards. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 23, 191–201 (2003).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  35. Eisenack, K. et al. Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation. Nature Clim. Change 4, 867–872 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  36. Tang, Z., Brody, S. D., Quinn, C., Chang, L. & Wei, T. Moving from agenda to action: evaluating local climate change action plans. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 53, 41–62 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  37. Friend, R. et al. Mainstreaming urban climate resilience into policy and planning; reflections from Asia. Urban Clim. 7, 6–19 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  38. Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments 186 (University of Washington and ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability, 2007).

  39. Policy Guide on Planning and Climate Change (American Planning Association, 2011).

  40. Comprehensive Climate Action Planning: The Center for Climate Strategies Adaptation Guidebook (Center for Climate Strategies, 2011); http://www.climatestrategies.us/library/library/view/908

  41. California Climate Adaptation Planning Guide (California Emergency Management Agency and California Natural Resources Agency, 2012); http://resources.ca.gov/climate/safeguarding/adaptation_policy_guide

  42. The PROVIA Guidance on Assessing Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change: Consultation Document (Global Programme of Research on Climate Change Vulnerability, Impacts, and Adaptation, 2013); http://www.unep.org/provia/RESOURCES/Publications/PROVIAGuidancereport/tabid/130752/Default.aspx

  43. National Research Council Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (National Academies, 2010).

  44. Promising Practices in Adaptation and Resilience: A Resource Guide For Local Leaders (Institute for Sustainable Communities, 2010); http://sustainablecommunitiesleadershipacademy.org/resource_files/documents/Climate-Adaptation-Resource-Guide.pdf

  45. Berke, P., Spurlock, D., Hess, G. & Band, L. Local comprehensive plan quality and regional ecosystem protection: the case of the Jordan lake watershed, North Carolina, U.S.A. Land Use Policy 31, 450–459 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  46. Krippendorff, K. Content Analysis: An Introduction to its Methodology 1 edn (Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications, 2013).

    Google Scholar 

  47. NVivo Qualitative Data Analysis Software Version 10 (QSR International Pty Ltd, 2012).

  48. Brody, S. D., Kang, J. E. & Bernhardt, S. Identifying factors influencing flood mitigation at the local level in Texas and Florida: the role of organizational capacity. Nat. Hazards 52, 167–184 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  49. Carmin, J., Nadkarni, N. & Rhie, C. Progress and Challenges in Urban Climate Adaptation Planning: Results of a Global Survey (MIT, 2012).

    Google Scholar 

  50. Burch, S. Transforming barriers into enablers of action on climate change: insights from three municipal case studies in British Columbia, Canada. Glob. Environ. Change 20, 287–297 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  51. Berke, P. R. Enhancing plan quality: evaluating the role of state planning mandates for natural hazard mitigation. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 39, 79–96 (1996).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  52. Dalton, L. C. & Burby, R. J. Mandates, plans, and planners: building local commitment to development management. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 60, 444–461 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Berke, P. R. & French, S. P. The influence of state planning mandates on local plan quality. J. Plan. Educat. Res. 13, 237–250 (1994).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Burby, R. J. Hurricane Katrina and the paradoxes of government disaster policy: bringing about wise governmental decisions for hazardous areas. Ann. Am. Acad. Polit. Soc. Sci. 604, 171–191 (2006).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Weber, E. U. What shapes perceptions of climate change? WIREs Clim. Change 1, 332–342 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  56. Baynham, M. & Stevens, M. Are we planning effectively for climate change? an evaluation of official community plans in British Columbia. J. Environ. Plan. Manage. 57, 557–587 (2014).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Berke, P., Cooper, J., Aminto, M., Grabich, S. & Horney, J. Adaptive planning for disaster recovery and resiliency: an evaluation of 87 local recovery plans in eight states. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 80, 310–323 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Adger, W. N. et al. Are there social limits to adaptation to climate change? Climatic Change 93, 335–354 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  59. Pitt, D. R. Harnessing community energy: the keys to climate mitigation policy adoption in US municipalities. Local Environ. 15, 717–729 (2010).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Ryan, D. From commitment to action: a literature review on climate policy implementation at city level. Climatic Change 131, 519–529 (2015).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. Bulkeley, H., Casta, V. & Castán Broto, V. A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities. Glob. Environ. Change 23, 92–102 (2013).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  62. Lubell, M., Feiock, R. & Handy, S. City adoption of environmentally sustainable policies in California’s central valley. J. Am. Plan. Assoc. 74, 293–308 (2009).

    Article  Google Scholar 

  63. Lumley, T. Regression Subset Selection (Univ. Washington, 2009); http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/leaps/leaps.pdf

  64. R Core Team R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, 2013).

Download references

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank our dissertation committees—T. BenDor (UNC), P. Berke (TAMU), R. Bierbaum (UM), L. Hoey (UM), P. Jagger (UNC), L. Larsen (UM), M. Lemos (UM), L. Moore (UNC) and G. Smith (UNC)—who provided support and extensive friendly review. Partial financial support for this research was provided by the National Science Foundation’s Graduate Research Fellowship Program.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

Both authors contributed extensively to this work. S.C.W. and M.S. jointly designed and tested the coding protocol and coded the plans in the sample. S.C.W. took the lead on compiling and analysing the data. Both authors contributed to writing and developing the manuscript at all stages.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Sierra C. Woodruff.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Supplementary information

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Woodruff, S., Stults, M. Numerous strategies but limited implementation guidance in US local adaptation plans. Nature Clim Change 6, 796–802 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3012

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3012

This article is cited by

Search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing