The contributions from terrestrial water sources to sea-level rise, other than ice caps and glaciers, are highly uncertain and heavily debated1,2,3,4,5. Recent assessments indicate that groundwater depletion (GWD) may become the most important positive terrestrial contribution6,7,8,9,10 over the next 50 years, probably equal in magnitude to the current contributions from glaciers and ice caps6. However, the existing estimates assume that nearly 100% of groundwater extracted eventually ends up in the oceans. Owing to limited knowledge of the pathways and mechanisms governing the ultimate fate of pumped groundwater, the relative fraction of global GWD that contributes to sea-level rise remains unknown. Here, using a coupled climate–hydrological model11,12 simulation, we show that only 80% of GWD ends up in the ocean. An increase in runoff to the ocean accounts for roughly two-thirds, whereas the remainder results from the enhanced net flux of precipitation minus evaporation over the ocean, due to increased atmospheric vapour transport from the land to the ocean. The contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise amounted to 0.02 (±0.004) mm yr−1 in 1900 and increased to 0.27 (±0.04) mm yr−1 in 2000. This indicates that existing studies have substantially overestimated the contribution of GWD to global sea-level rise by a cumulative amount of at least 10 mm during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century. With other terrestrial water contributions included, we estimate the net terrestrial water contribution during the period 1993–2010 to be +0.12 (±0.04) mm yr−1, suggesting that the net terrestrial water contribution reported in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report report is probably overestimated by a factor of three.
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Y.W. is supported by Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) Oversea Research Fellowship (grant no. JSPS-2014-878). M.-H.L. is supported by grants MOST-104-2923-M-002-002-MY4 and MOST-100-2119-M-001-029-MY5 to National Taiwan University. J.T.R. and J.S.F. are supported by NASA grants from the GRACE Science Team, the Sea Level Program and by Water Initiative at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology. M.-H.L., J.T.R. and J.S.F. are also supported by a grant from the University of California Office of the President, Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives.
The authors declare no competing financial interests.
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Wada, Y., Lo, MH., Yeh, PF. et al. Fate of water pumped from underground and contributions to sea-level rise. Nature Clim Change 6, 777–780 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3001
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