Commentary | Published:

Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 224228 (2016) | Download Citation

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims.

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Acknowledgements

We thank Thomas Karl, Susan Solomon, Jochem Marotzke, Stefan Rahmstorf, Steve Lewandowsky, James Risbey and Naomi Oreskes for their comments on earlier drafts. We acknowledge the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison and the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling for their roles in making the WCRP CMIP multi-model datasets available. Portions of this study were supported by the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program (RGCM) of the US Department of Energy's Office of Biological & Environmental Research (BER) Cooperative Agreement # DE-FC02-97ER62402, and the National Science Foundation.

Author information

Affiliations

  1. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, Canada

    • John C. Fyfe
    • , Gregory M. Flato
    • , Nathan P. Gillett
    •  & Neil C. Swart
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA

    • Gerald A. Meehl
  3. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, New South Wales 2052, Australia

    • Matthew H. England
  4. Department of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA

    • Michael E. Mann
  5. Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California 94550, USA

    • Benjamin D. Santer
  6. National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK

    • Ed Hawkins
  7. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive, MC 0206, La Jolla, California 92093, USA

    • Shang-Ping Xie
  8. Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8904, Japan

    • Yu Kosaka

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Contributions

J.C.F. and G.A.M. conceived the study. J.C.F. undertook the calculations and wrote the initial draft of the paper. All the authors helped with the analysis and edited the manuscript.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to John C. Fyfe.

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DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2938

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