Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO₂ emissions

Abstract

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO₂ emissions^1,2,3,4. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO₂ emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO₂ emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling^5,6 to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO₂. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to local-scale climate impacts.