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Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests

Nature Climate Change volume 6, pages 610–613 (2016)Cite this article

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Abstract

Spatial synchrony, the tendency of distant populations to fluctuate similarly, is a major concern in ecology1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8. Except in special circumstances3,9, researchers historically had difficulty identifying drivers of synchrony in field systems5,6,10. Perhaps for this reason, the possibility9,11,12 that changes in large-scale climatic drivers may modify synchrony, thereby impacting ecosystems and human concerns, has been little examined. Here, we use wavelets to determine environmental drivers of phenological synchrony across Britain for 20 aphid species, most major crop pests. Consistently across species, changes in drivers produced large changes in aphid synchrony. Different drivers acted on different timescales: using a new wavelet analogue of the Moran theorem1, we show that on long timescales (>4 years), 80% of synchrony in aphid first flights is due to synchrony in winter climate; but this explanation accounts for less short-timescale (≤4 years) synchrony. Changes in aphid synchrony over time also differed by timescale: long-timescale synchrony fell from before 1993 to after, caused by similar changes in winter climate; whereas short-timescale synchrony increased. Shifts in winter climate are attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation, an important climatic phenomenon7,11,13, so effects described here may influence other taxa. This study documents a new way that climatic changes influence populations, through altered Moran effects.

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Figure 1: Synchrony of aphid first flights changed, driven by synchrony in winter climate.
Figure 2: Inter-species variation and changes in synchrony are explained by winter climate.
Figure 3: Changes in winter-temperature synchrony mirrored changes in the NAO.

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Acknowledgements

We thank contributors to the Rothamsted Insect Survey; P. Verrier for data extraction; and B. Cazelles, J. E. Cohen, R. Costantino, R. Desharnais, E. Defriez, J. Kastens, B. Mechtley and C. Reid for advice and discussions. The Rothamsted Insect Survey is a UK BBSRC-supported National Capability. L.W.S. was supported and D.C.R. was partly supported by UK NERC grants NE/H020705/1, NE/I010963/1 and NE/I011889/1 and funding from the University of Kansas. Travel was facilitated by US National Science Foundation grant DMS-1225529.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Kansas Biological Survey, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas 66047, USA

    Lawrence W. Sheppard & Daniel C. Reuman

  2. Rothamsted Insect Survey, Rothamsted Research, West Common, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, UK

    James R. Bell & Richard Harrington

  3. Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York 10065, USA

    Daniel C. Reuman

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  1. Lawrence W. Sheppard
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Contributions

L.W.S. and D.C.R. designed and carried out the analysis and wrote the paper. Data and interpretive assistance were provided by J.R.B. and R.H. All authors contributed to editing.

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Correspondence to Lawrence W. Sheppard or Daniel C. Reuman.

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Sheppard, L., Bell, J., Harrington, R. et al. Changes in large-scale climate alter spatial synchrony of aphid pests. Nature Clim Change 6, 610–613 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2881

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