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A role for tropical forests in stabilizing atmospheric CO2

Nature Climate Change volume 5, pages 1022–1023 (2015)Cite this article

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Tropical forests could offset much of the carbon released from the declining use of fossil fuels, helping to stabilize and then reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations, thereby providing a bridge to a low-fossil-fuel future.

A 35-year transition from fossil to renewable fuels may be possible1, but fossil fuel emissions continue to rise. The world's largest emitter, China, is not committing to peak carbon emissions until 2030, and among developed countries, very few are aiming to end fossil fuel use by 2050. Thus, it is unlikely that fossil fuel emissions will fall in the next decade, or that they will fall by more than 80% by 2050. More likely, emissions from fossil fuels from 2015 to 2050 will exceed 250 Pg C, resulting in cumulative carbon emissions of over 400 Pg C between 2000 and 2050, and a greater-than-50% chance of exceeding a global warming of 2 °C (ref. 2). So are we already committed to a warming of 2 °C or greater? Not necessarily — absorption of carbon by tropical forests could offset much of the release of fossil fuel carbon between now and 2050, thus stabilizing and then reducing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere within just a few decades, and providing a bridge to a fossil-fuel-free world.

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Figure 1: The potential role for tropical forest management in stabilizing atmospheric CO2.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. R. A. Houghton and Alexander A. Nassikas are at the Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, Massachusetts 02540-1644, USA,

    R. A. Houghton & Alexander A. Nassikas

  2. Brett Byers is at Million Acre Pledge, 310 Hillside Avenue, Piedmont, California 94611, USA, and Rainforest Trust, 7078 Airlie Road, Warrenton, Virginia 20187, USA,

    Brett Byers

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  1. R. A. Houghton
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  2. Brett Byers
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  3. Alexander A. Nassikas
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Correspondence to R. A. Houghton.

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Houghton, R., Byers, B. & Nassikas, A. A role for tropical forests in stabilizing atmospheric CO2. Nature Clim Change 5, 1022–1023 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2869

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